Duke
4–1 · Ours #38Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–26Our projected score
Virginia
4–2 · Ours #56Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UVA 51%
UVA 51%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. UVA PK
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.7
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Walker EgetSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2243rd
- Comp %
- 61.2
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Beau PribulaSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0778th
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 17
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Virginiaoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseDuke | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | +0.11 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.01 | 57th |
| 32nd | 48.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 38.9% | 50th |
| 47th | +0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.07 | 81st |
| 71st | +0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 30th |
| 93rd | 11.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 8.7% | 13th |
| Dukeoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseVirginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | +0.21 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 81st |
| 75th | 42.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 39.7% | 56th |
| 34th | +0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.02 | 51st |
| 26th | +0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.12 | 107th |
| 29th | 14.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.6% | 71st |
Team stats
| VirginiaUVA | DukeDUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.226th | +0.860th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +3.933rd | +3.934th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 42%115th | 60%22nd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.406th | 4.8718th |
| Time of possession | 31:1226th | 33:184th |
| Plays per game | 6844th | 7028th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +7 | +2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 4 – 11 | 4 – 6 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 9.4%65th | 7.5%106th |
Season so far
Duke4–1 · 102nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Tulane17–3covered −9
vs Tulane17–3covered −9W
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5W
vs Stanford35–7covered −10
vs Stanford35–7covered −10Wvs William & Mary62–7covered −43.5
L
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5Virginia4–2 · 90th-hardest schedule
W
vs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
L
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5W
vs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20L
at Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1W
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is