Virginia Tech
4–2 · Ours #52Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–37Our projected score
AP #3Miami
5–0 · Ours #5Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.MIA 89%
MIA 89%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.MIA −16.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −20.8 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −16.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.56.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 52.5 · first seen 56.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.MIA −16.5-115 DraftKings52% to cover · -3.1% EV
MIA −16.5-115 DraftKings52% to cover · -3.1% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Ethan GrunkemeyerSophomore · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1459th
- Comp %
- 73.1
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
Darian MensahJunior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.425th
- Comp %
- 84.1
- TD
- 15
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Miamioffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseVirginia Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | +0.32 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 87th |
| 1st | 57.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 38.0% | 40th |
| 3rd | +0.44 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.11 | 95th |
| 18th | +0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | 0.00 | 60th |
| 25th | 15.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.2% | 84th |
| Virginia Techoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseMiami | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | +0.09 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.08 | 28th |
| 39th | 47.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 37.6% | 37th |
| 64th | +0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.05 | 75th |
| 70th | +0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.38 | 1st |
| 56th | 13.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 9.0% | 20th |
Team stats
| MiamiMIA | Virginia TechVT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.469th | +3.022nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +0.567th | +2.548th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 63%13th | 56%48th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.672nd | 4.4145th |
| Time of possession | 30:3638th | 31:1228th |
| Plays per game | 6756th | 747th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +3 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 3 – 6 | 8 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 10.0%47th | 14.6%3rd |
Season so far
Virginia Tech4–2 · 104th-hardest schedule
Wvs VMI73–3covered −54.5
W
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5W
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5W
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5L
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2L
at California20–25missed −10
at California20–25missed −10Miami5–0 · 95th-hardest schedule
W
at Stanford45–6covered −24.5
at Stanford45–6covered −24.5Wvs Florida A&M77–7covered −59.5
W
at Wake Forest33–20missed −20
at Wake Forest33–20missed −20W
vs Central Michigan52–3covered −41
vs Central Michigan52–3covered −41W
at Clemson41–13covered −14
at Clemson41–13covered −14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is