Week 1 report · Fri, Sep 4 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Toledo
4–2 · Ours #50 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–30FinalWe had TOL 26 – MSU 27
Michigan State
2–4 · Ours #75 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MSU 52%MSU won
MSU 52%MSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MSU −10.MSU −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −0.7 · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.4.48.5final 50 · over by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TOL +10Pmatched the close
TOL +10Pmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
John Alan Richter12/21 · 196 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1453rd pct
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Alessio Milivojevic26/34 · 247 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2968th pct
- Comp %
- 76.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Toledooffense | Played like MSU +3.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMichigan State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | 29.3%▼13.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.3%▲13.8 | 86th |
| 45th | +0.01▼0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.05 | 55th |
| 57th | +0.14▼0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.02 | 43rd |
| 25th | −0.15▼0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.17 | 75th |
| 41st | 1▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| Michigan Stateoffense | defenseToledo | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | 38.6%▼5.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.6%▼4.4 | 61st |
| 45th | +0.01▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.02 | 55th |
| 72nd | +0.29▲0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.14 | 28th |
| 19th | −0.21▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.07 | 81st |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ToledoTOL | Michigan StateMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3063rd | Own 3995th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.1 pts9th | +4.4 pts100th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4122nd | 8398th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.857th | −2.843rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts18th | 0.0 pts41st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MSU +11.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.1, kicking +4.7, 4th downs +0.8, penalty first downs +0.8. | −11.97th | +11.993rd |
Season so far
Toledo4–2 · 129th-hardest schedule
Lat Michigan State20–30push +10
at Michigan State20–30push +10Wvs Central Connecticut63–10covered −36
W
vs Temple49–48missed −5
vs Temple49–48missed −5W
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5W
at Ball State39–24missed −21
at Ball State39–24missed −21L
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5Michigan State2–4 · 19th-hardest schedule
Wvs Toledo30–20push −10
vs Toledo30–20push −10W
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5L
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29L
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6L
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5L
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 4, 7:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is