Toledo

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at EMU · Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

4–2 FBS · Mid-American · this season

Rating

−3.4

Rank

Résumé

Projected wins

8.2▲ 0.2 vs preseason

CFP odds

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Fri, Sep 49/4

at Michigan StateMSUTOL +0.7TOL +10.0L 20–3050TOL · Push

Sat, Sep 129/12Central ConnecticutCentral ConnecticutTOL −37.8TOL −36.0W 63–1085

Sat, Sep 199/19

TempleTEMTOL −11.3TOL −4.0W 49–4858TOL · L

Sat, Sep 269/26

San Diego StateSDSUTOL −6.3TOL +2.5W 41–1666TOL · W

Sat, Oct 310/3

at Ball StateBALLTOL −23.0TOL −19.5W 39–2454TOL · L

Sat, Oct 1010/10

BuffaloBUFTOL −23.4TOL −19.5L 8–2360TOL · L

Sat, Oct 1710/17

at Eastern MichiganEMUTOL −8.1TOL −6.5TOL −6.5Pass

Sat, Oct 2410/24

Western MichiganWMUTOL PK—wk 8

Wed, Nov 411/4

at Sacramento StateSACTOL −17.9—wk 10

Wed, Nov 1111/11

MassachusettsMASSTOL −16.4—wk 11

Fri, Nov 2011/20

Bowling GreenBGSUTOL −15.5—wk 12

Fri, Nov 2711/27

at OhioOHIOTOL +1.0—wk 13

Model on TOL games: 1–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–3 · as the dog 1–0 · home 1–2, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +4.3 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

8.24–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 8.0

Bowl (6+)93%

9+ wins12%

11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 4.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game29%

Win conference16%

Make the CFP0%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play+0.1740th

Success rate42.4%79th

Pass EPA+0.2730th

Rush EPA+0.0679th

Explosive rate15.1%27th

Quality-drive rate55.4%50th

Points per quality drive3.889th

Defense

EPA allowed−0.0053rd

Success allowed35.0%20th

Pass EPA allowed+0.1089th

Rush EPA allowed−0.1021st

Explosive allowed8.2%8th

Havoc rate8.4%83rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game−2.2115th

Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +2.0

Field position margin−0.3 yd80th

Hidden points / game−2.8gave up

Luck, wins+0.33.7 earned

One-score record1–0flipped 3–3

Rush rate over expected−0.5%59th

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−3.484th

Schedule played−8.1129th

Schedule remaining−9.8128th

Full schedule−9.1135th

Pregame expected wins3.8of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 84th · −3.4Week 6

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

Toledooff +0.17 40thdef −0.00 allowed · 53rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.