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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Michigan State

2–4 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
−0.9
Rank
75
Résumé
90
Projected wins
4.0▼ 0.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4ToledoTOLMSU −0.7MSU −10.0W 30–2050TOL · Push
Sat, Sep 129/12Eastern MichiganEMUMSU −16.1MSU −17.5W 35–773EMU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Notre DameNDMSU +30.4MSU +29.5L 10–2730ND · L
Sat, Sep 269/26NebraskaNEBMSU +3.5MSU +4.5L 13–3136NEB · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at WisconsinWISMSU +9.0MSU +10.0L 3–3124MSU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10IllinoisILLMSU +2.3MSU +3.5L 37–3866MSU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17NorthwesternNUMSU +7.9MSU +7.5NU −7.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at UCLAUCLAMSU +16.9—wk 8
Sat, Nov 711/7at MichiganMICHMSU +13.6MSU +16.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14WashingtonWASHMSU +1.4—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20OregonOREMSU +13.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at RutgersRUTGMSU −8.0—wk 13

Model on MSU games: 2–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +1.2 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.02–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.7
Bowl (6+)10%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01107th
Success rate43.1%69th
Pass EPA+0.0293rd
Rush EPA−0.03108th
Explosive rate8.3%135th
Quality-drive rate55.7%48th
Points per quality drive3.891st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0688th
Success allowed41.8%80th
Pass EPA allowed+0.16103rd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0251st
Explosive allowed10.3%42nd
Havoc rate7.4%107th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+4.18th
Turnover margin−3102nd · exp. −4.0
Field position margin+2.4 yd49th
Hidden points / game+0.8banked
Luck, wins−0.92.9 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+1.1%47th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.975th
Schedule played+6.019th
Schedule remaining+5.342nd
Full schedule+5.628th
Pregame expected wins1.7of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 75th · −0.9Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Michigan Stateoff −0.01 107thdef +0.06 allowed · 88th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.