Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Ohio
4–2 · Ours #86 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–49FinalWe had OHIO 19 – NEB 35
Nebraska
5–1 · Ours #46 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NEB 82%NEB won
NEB 82%NEB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NEB −23.5.NEB −24oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.3 · NEB covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.2.47final 70 · over by 23
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.OHIO +23.5Llost 0.5 to the close
OHIO +23.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Nick Poulos14/31 · 164 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0831st pct
- Comp %
- 45.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Anthony Colandrea18/32 · 275 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7594th pct
- Comp %
- 56.3
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ohiooffense | Played like NEB +29.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNebraska | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 33.9%▼17.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.9%▼1.6 | 75th |
| 30th | −0.08▼0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▼0.14 | 70th |
| 24th | −0.22▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.22▼0.03 | 76th |
| 55th | +0.08▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.25 | 45th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.8 | 59th |
| Nebraskaoffense | defenseOhio | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 51.4%▲3.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.4%▼7.8 | 20th |
| 95th | +0.49▲0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.43 | 6th |
| 90th | +0.60▲0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.60▼0.41 | 10th |
| 90th | +0.39▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.37 | 10th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| OhioOHIO | NebraskaNEB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2952nd | Own 3060th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.1 pts28th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6264th | 7287th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −26.85th | +26.895th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts78th | −0.2 pts34th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NEB +3.0: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.5, kicking +0.1, 4th downs −0.9, penalty first downs +0.8. | −3.034th | +3.066th |
Season so far
Ohio4–2 · 121st-hardest schedule
Lat Nebraska21–49missed +24
at Nebraska21–49missed +24W
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2QB change mid-game
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2QB change mid-gameL
at South Alabama36–41covered +7
at South Alabama36–41covered +7Wvs Stonehill35–7missed −32.5
W
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5W
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5Nebraska5–1 · 73rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Ohio49–21covered −24
vs Ohio49–21covered −24W
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5Wvs North Dakota34–7missed −27.5
W
at Michigan State31–13covered −6
at Michigan State31–13covered −6W
vs Maryland48–23covered −15
vs Maryland48–23covered −15L
vs Indiana17–20covered +9
vs Indiana17–20covered +9Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is