Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ohio

4–2 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−3.6
Rank
86
Résumé
70
Projected wins
8.4▲ 2.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at NebraskaNEBOHIO +15.3OHIO +23.5L 21–4918OHIO · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Jacksonville StateJXSTOHIO PKOHIO −2.0W 29–2738JXST · Push
Sat, Sep 199/19at South AlabamaUSAOHIO +8.6OHIO +6.0L 36–4157USA · L
Sat, Sep 269/26StonehillStonehillOHIO −34.5OHIO −32.5W 35–784
Sat, Oct 310/3at Kent StateKENTOHIO −10.9OHIO −3.0W 13–1047OHIO · Push
Sat, Oct 1010/10Central MichiganCMUOHIO −12.2OHIO −3.5W 31–1479OHIO · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Sacramento StateSACOHIO −15.7OHIO −15.0OHIO −15.5Pass
Tue, Nov 311/3at AkronAKROHIO −14.4—wk 10
Tue, Nov 1011/10at Miami (OH)M-OHOHIO −3.1—wk 11
Tue, Nov 1711/17Ball StateBALLOHIO −18.9—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27ToledoTOLOHIO −1.0—wk 13

Model on OHIO games: 1–2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 0–1 · home 1–1, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +6.6 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.44–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.1
Bowl (6+)94%
9+ wins16%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 4.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game57%
Win conference28%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1353rd
Success rate47.8%36th
Pass EPA+0.0872nd
Rush EPA+0.1634th
Explosive rate12.3%81st
Quality-drive rate61.7%17th
Points per quality drive4.073rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.13110th
Success allowed42.9%89th
Pass EPA allowed+0.23119th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0580th
Explosive allowed11.9%78th
Havoc rate9.5%63rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.811th
Turnover margin−3102nd · exp. −2.5
Field position margin+1.9 yd54th
Hidden points / game−0.8gave up
Luck, wins−0.14.0 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+8.1%13th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−3.686th
Schedule played−6.0121st
Schedule remaining−12.4137th
Full schedule−9.5136th
Pregame expected wins2.5of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 86th · −3.6Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUOHIOgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Ohiooff +0.13 53rddef +0.13 allowed · 110th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.