Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ohio
4–2 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−3.6
Rank
86
Résumé
70
Projected wins
8.4▲ 2.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on OHIO games: 1–2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 0–1 · home 1–1, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +6.6 · closer than the market 1 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.44–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.1
Bowl (6+)94%
9+ wins16%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 4.4 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game57%
Win conference28%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1353rd
Success rate47.8%36th
Pass EPA+0.0872nd
Rush EPA+0.1634th
Explosive rate12.3%81st
Quality-drive rate61.7%17th
Points per quality drive4.073rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.13110th
Success allowed42.9%89th
Pass EPA allowed+0.23119th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0580th
Explosive allowed11.9%78th
Havoc rate9.5%63rd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.811th
Turnover margin−3102nd · exp. −2.5
Field position margin+1.9 yd54th
Hidden points / game−0.8gave up
Luck, wins−0.14.0 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+8.1%13th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−3.686th
Schedule played−6.0121st
Schedule remaining−12.4137th
Full schedule−9.5136th
Pregame expected wins2.5of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 86th · −3.6Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Ohiooff +0.13 53rddef +0.13 allowed · 110th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Ohiooff +0.13 53rddef +0.13 allowed · 110th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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