Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Nebraska

5–1 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+11.7
Rank
16
Résumé
29
Projected wins
8.3▲ 3.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
4%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5OhioOHIONEB −15.3NEB −23.5W 49–2183OHIO · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Bowling GreenBGSUNEB −28.1NEB −28.5W 56–798BGSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19North DakotaNorth DakotaNEB −36.5NEB −27.5W 34–776
Sat, Sep 269/26at Michigan StateMSUNEB −3.5NEB −4.5W 31–1365NEB · W
Sat, Oct 310/3MarylandMDNEB −18.0NEB −14.5W 48–2378NEB · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10IndianaIUNEB +4.3NEB +7.5L 17–2042NEB · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at OregonORENEB +4.3NEB +7.5NEB +7.5Pass
Fri, Nov 611/6at IllinoisILLNEB −5.8—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at RutgersRUTGNEB −21.9—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2711/27at IowaIOWANEB +2.9—wk 13

Model on NEB games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.35–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)95%
9+ wins16%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game3%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP4%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 9% with a win vs Oregon, 1% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2317th
Success rate46.9%42nd
Pass EPA+0.2336th
Rush EPA+0.2212th
Explosive rate14.0%44th
Quality-drive rate60.0%22nd
Points per quality drive4.917th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1511th
Success allowed32.6%7th
Pass EPA allowed−0.247th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0538th
Explosive allowed10.6%48th
Havoc rate12.1%19th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.8101st
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin+1.5 yd60th
Hidden points / game+4.8banked
Luck, wins−0.15.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 6–0
Rush rate over expected−2.6%81st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+11.716th
Schedule played+0.173rd
Schedule remaining+6.236th
Full schedule+3.451st
Pregame expected wins2.6of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 16th · +11.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNEBgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Nebraskaoff +0.23 17thdef −0.15 allowed · 11th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.