Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Nebraska
5–1 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+11.7
Rank
16
Résumé
29
Projected wins
8.3▲ 3.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
4%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on NEB games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.35–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)95%
9+ wins16%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.3 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game3%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP4%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 9% with a win vs Oregon, 1% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2317th
Success rate46.9%42nd
Pass EPA+0.2336th
Rush EPA+0.2212th
Explosive rate14.0%44th
Quality-drive rate60.0%22nd
Points per quality drive4.917th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1511th
Success allowed32.6%7th
Pass EPA allowed−0.247th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0538th
Explosive allowed10.6%48th
Havoc rate12.1%19th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.8101st
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin+1.5 yd60th
Hidden points / game+4.8banked
Luck, wins−0.15.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 6–0
Rush rate over expected−2.6%81st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+11.716th
Schedule played+0.173rd
Schedule remaining+6.236th
Full schedule+3.451st
Pregame expected wins2.6of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 16th · +11.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Nebraskaoff +0.23 17thdef −0.15 allowed · 11th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Nebraskaoff +0.23 17thdef −0.15 allowed · 11th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.


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