Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Bowling Green
2–4 · Ours #132 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–56FinalWe had BGSU 13 – NEB 41
Nebraska
5–1 · Ours #33 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NEB 96%NEB won
NEB 96%NEB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NEB −28.5.NEB −30.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −28.1 · NEB covered by 18.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.2.49.5final 63 · over by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BGSU +28.5Llost 2.0 to the close
BGSU +28.5Llost 2.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jay Kastantin10/16 · 84 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0846th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Anthony Colandrea20/24 · 222 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4580th pct
- Comp %
- 83.3
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q4 by TJ Lateef
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bowling Greenoffense | Played like NEB +58.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNebraska | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | 23.8%▼16.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 23.8%▲11.0 | 94th |
| 1st | −0.59▼0.54 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.59▲0.49 | 99th |
| 4th | −0.67▼0.61 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.67▲0.53 | 96th |
| 3rd | −0.54▼0.44 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.54▲0.53 | 97th |
| 16th | 2▼1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.5 | 84th |
| Nebraskaoffense | defenseBowling Green | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | 60.0%▲14.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 60.0%▼14.6 | 7th |
| 96th | +0.53▲0.35 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.53▼0.52 | 4th |
| 87th | +0.53▲0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.53▼0.92 | 13th |
| 96th | +0.53▲0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.53▼0.28 | 5th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bowling GreenBGSU | NebraskaNEB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2635th | Own 3376th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −1.4 pts18th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 211st | 4020th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −33.62nd | +33.698th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NEB +10.0: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.3, kicking −1.0, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −10.012th | +10.088th |
Season so far
Bowling Green2–4 · 92nd-hardest schedule
Lvs Tarleton State13–20missed −2
Lat Nebraska7–56missed +30.5
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5L
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5L
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5W
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5W
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9Nebraska5–1 · 73rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Ohio49–21covered −24
vs Ohio49–21covered −24Wvs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5Wvs North Dakota34–7missed −27.5
W
at Michigan State31–13covered −6
at Michigan State31–13covered −6W
vs Maryland48–23covered −15
vs Maryland48–23covered −15L
vs Indiana17–20covered +9
vs Indiana17–20covered +9Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is