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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs BALL · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Bowling Green

2–4 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−12.1
Rank
124
Résumé
119
Projected wins
4.6▼ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Tarleton StateTarleton StateBGSU −25.1BGSU −2.0L 13–2054
Sat, Sep 129/12at NebraskaNEBBGSU +28.1BGSU +28.5L 7–563BGSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Iowa StateISUBGSU +25.3BGSU +22.5L 7–5519ISU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26South FloridaUSFBGSU +25.4BGSU +15.0L 6–1443USF · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Miami (OH)M-OHBGSU +19.8BGSU +13.0W 24–2062M-OH · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10Sacramento StateSACBGSU −3.1BGSU −7.0W 38–1070SAC · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Ball StateBALLBGSU −6.9BGSU −6.5BGSU −6.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at BuffaloBUFBGSU +3.7—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Western MichiganWMUBGSU +18.0—wk 9
Tue, Nov 1011/10Kent StateKENTBGSU −5.6—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20at ToledoTOLBGSU +15.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28MassachusettsMASSBGSU −2.9—wk 13

Model on BGSU games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 0–2 · home 1–1, away 0–3 · avg gap to the market +5.3 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.62–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.7
Bowl (6+)22%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game8%
Win conference3%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.05122nd
Success rate39.6%111th
Pass EPA+0.0871st
Rush EPA−0.18135th
Explosive rate10.2%116th
Quality-drive rate45.1%103rd
Points per quality drive2.9126th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0794th
Success allowed45.6%116th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0933rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.20126th
Explosive allowed12.4%87th
Havoc rate11.3%32nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.699th
Turnover margin+158th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin−3.3 yd115th
Hidden points / game−1.8gave up
Luck, wins−0.42.4 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+3.7%34th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.1124th
Schedule played−2.293rd
Schedule remaining−9.8125th
Full schedule−6.3118th
Pregame expected wins1.8of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 124th · −12.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBGSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Bowling Greenoff −0.05 122nddef +0.07 allowed · 94th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.