Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Akron
1–5 · Ours #126 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–41FinalWe had AKR 16 – MINN 36
Minnesota
4–2 · Ours #82 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MINN 87%MINN won
MINN 87%MINN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MINN −27.MINN −23oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.2 · MINN covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.9.49.5final 48 · under by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AKR +26.5Lbeat the close by 3.5
AKR +26.5Lbeat the close by 3.5Quarterbacksthis game
Brayden Roggow12/25 · 131 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1526th pct
- Comp %
- 48.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Cibastian Broughton in Q2
Drake Lindsey17/31 · 204 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1328th pct
- Comp %
- 54.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Akronoffense | Played like MINN +12.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMinnesota | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 31.2%▼9.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.2%▲15.3 | 82nd |
| 8th | −0.32▼0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.33 | 92nd |
| 13th | −0.38▼0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.38▲0.27 | 87th |
| 21st | −0.18▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.29 | 79th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
| Minnesotaoffense | defenseAkron | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.8%▲6.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.8%▲3.5 | 43rd |
| 24th | −0.13▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.43 | 76th |
| 33rd | −0.13▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.41 | 68th |
| 25th | −0.14▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.32 | 75th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AkronAKR | MinnesotaMINN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2210th | Own 4399th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.2 pts79th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4833rd | 4833rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −16.714th | +16.786th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MINN +7.7: field position +7.3, kicking +0.9, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs −0.8. | −7.718th | +7.782nd |
Season so far
Akron1–5 · 94th-hardest schedule
L
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5Wvs Robert Morris45–10covered −26.5
Lat Minnesota7–41missed +23QB change mid-game
at Minnesota7–41missed +23QB change mid-gameL
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5L
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7L
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5Minnesota4–2 · 76th-hardest schedule
Wvs Eastern Illinois59–7covered −42.5
L
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PK
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PKWvs Akron41–7covered −23
vs Akron41–7covered −23W
at Washington27–24covered +12
at Washington27–24covered +12W
vs Michigan20–14covered +6
vs Michigan20–14covered +6L
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is