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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Akron

1–5 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−19.8
Rank
135
Résumé
134
Projected wins
2.7▲ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3at Wake ForestWAKEAKR +26.9AKR +24.5L 16–3829WAKE · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Robert MorrisRobert MorrisAKR −33.1AKR −26.5W 45–1075
Sat, Sep 199/19at MinnesotaMINNAKR +19.2AKR +26.5L 7–4142AKR · L
Sat, Sep 269/26UNLVUNLVAKR +13.2AKR +14.0L 10–3826AKR · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Central MichiganCMUAKR +3.8AKR +6.5L 17–4110AKR · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10Eastern MichiganEMUAKR +7.3AKR +6.5L 23–2561EMU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Miami (OH)M-OHAKR +13.5AKR +10.0M-OH −9.5Lean · +0.8%
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Kent StateKENTAKR +3.5—wk 8
Tue, Nov 311/3OhioOHIOAKR +14.4—wk 10
Tue, Nov 1011/10Western MichiganWMUAKR +18.5—wk 11
Wed, Nov 1811/18at MassachusettsMASSAKR +6.0—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27BuffaloBUFAKR +4.0—wk 13

Model on AKR games: 0–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 0–3 · home 0–2, away 0–3 · avg gap to the market +1.9 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.71–5 banked, 6 to play · preseason 2.4
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.03118th
Success rate41.2%94th
Pass EPA−0.13123rd
Rush EPA+0.0869th
Explosive rate15.1%26th
Quality-drive rate44.8%106th
Points per quality drive3.2116th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.14115th
Success allowed44.9%110th
Pass EPA allowed+0.18108th
Rush EPA allowed+0.10100th
Explosive allowed14.2%117th
Havoc rate4.1%138th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.2122nd
Turnover margin−3102nd · exp. −1.5
Field position margin−2.8 yd106th
Hidden points / game−5.0gave up
Luck, wins−0.31.3 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected−1.8%70th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−19.8135th
Schedule played−2.695th
Schedule remaining−8.0112th
Full schedule−5.5109th
Pregame expected wins0.8of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 135th · −19.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUAKRgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Akronoff −0.03 118thdef +0.14 allowed · 115th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.