Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
UCLA
5–0 · Ours #35 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
54–3FinalWe had UCLA 29 – MD 28
Maryland
2–4 · Ours #55 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UCLA 52%UCLA won
UCLA 52%UCLA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UCLA −2.UCLA −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −0.7 · UCLA covered by 48.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.6.56final 57 · over by 1
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Nico Iamaleava15/24 · 209 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1129th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Malik Washington18/37 · 142 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.613rd pct
- Comp %
- 48.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCLAoffense | Played like UCLA +19.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMaryland | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | 38.5%▼9.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.5%▲8.0 | 61st |
| 52nd | +0.07▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.03 | 48th |
| 14th | −0.35▼0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.39 | 86th |
| 96th | +0.55▲0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.55▼0.41 | 4th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Marylandoffense | defenseUCLA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | 26.7%▼11.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.7%▲8.5 | 90th |
| 7th | −0.35▼0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.24 | 94th |
| 10th | −0.42▼0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.42▲0.24 | 90th |
| 14th | −0.26▼0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.16 | 86th |
| 1st | 4▼3.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲1.3 | 99th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCLAUCLA | MarylandMD | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3790th | Own 2312th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.4 pts84th | +0.7 pts66th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3919th | 4529th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +14.683rd | −14.617th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts34th | +0.2 pts64th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 299th | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UCLA +20.8: turnovers +5.2, field position +5.0, kicking +0.5, 4th downs −0.6, penalty first downs +2.3, return touchdowns +8.3. | +20.8100th | −20.81st |
Season so far
UCLA5–0 · 79th-hardest schedule
W
at California45–24covered −2.5
at California45–24covered −2.5W
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5W
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5Wat Maryland54–3covered −2.5
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5W
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5Maryland2–4 · 3rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Hampton62–0covered −45.5
W
at UConn38–14covered −11.5
at UConn38–14covered −11.5L
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5Lvs UCLA3–54missed +2.5
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5L
at Nebraska23–48missed +15
at Nebraska23–48missed +15L
at Ohio State16–45covered +31
at Ohio State16–45covered +31Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is