Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UCLA

5–0 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+12.5
Rank
13
Résumé
5
Projected wins
10.0▲ 5.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
64%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at CaliforniaCALUCLA +6.7UCLA −1.5W 45–2482CAL · L
Sat, Sep 129/12San Diego StateSDSUUCLA −10.3UCLA −11.0W 28–1074SDSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19PurduePURUCLA −14.9UCLA −14.0W 52–3851UCLA · Push
Sat, Sep 269/26at MarylandMDUCLA −0.7UCLA −2.0W 54–373MD · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at OregonOREUCLA +7.9UCLA +12.0W 17–1554UCLA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17WisconsinWISUCLA −4.5UCLA −2.5UCLA −2.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31NevadaNEVUCLA −26.0—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at MinnesotaMINNUCLA −12.7—wk 10
Fri, Nov 1311/13IllinoisILLUCLA −11.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at MichiganMICHUCLA −0.7—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28USCUSCUCLA −2.8—wk 13

Model on UCLA games: 1–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.05–0 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.5
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins88%
11+ wins38%

The 7 games left add 5.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game36%
Win conference12%
Make the CFP64%
First-round bye16%
Win it all2%
  • A CFP bid: 80% with a win vs Wisconsin, 40% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Notre Dame over BYU — swings a CFP bid between 62% and 66%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1545th
Success rate46.7%43rd
Pass EPA−0.02104th
Rush EPA+0.266th
Explosive rate15.4%23rd
Quality-drive rate58.1%33rd
Points per quality drive4.164th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.159th
Success allowed33.7%13th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1815th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1217th
Explosive allowed11.4%65th
Havoc rate11.8%23rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.7127th
Turnover margin+94th · exp. +7.5
Field position margin+10.2 yd4th
Hidden points / game+9.5banked
Luck, wins+0.84.2 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 4–1
Rush rate over expected+5.2%23rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+12.513th
Schedule played−0.680th
Schedule remaining+3.062nd
Full schedule+1.564th
Pregame expected wins1.2of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 13th · +12.5AP 12thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUCLAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UCLAoff +0.15 45thdef −0.15 allowed · 9th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.