Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UCLA
5–0 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+12.5
Rank
13
Résumé
5
Projected wins
10.0▲ 5.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
64%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UCLA games: 1–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 1 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.05–0 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.5
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins88%
11+ wins38%
The 7 games left add 5.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game36%
Win conference12%
Make the CFP64%
First-round bye16%
Win it all2%
- A CFP bid: 80% with a win vs Wisconsin, 40% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Notre Dame over BYU — swings a CFP bid between 62% and 66%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1545th
Success rate46.7%43rd
Pass EPA−0.02104th
Rush EPA+0.266th
Explosive rate15.4%23rd
Quality-drive rate58.1%33rd
Points per quality drive4.164th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.159th
Success allowed33.7%13th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1815th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1217th
Explosive allowed11.4%65th
Havoc rate11.8%23rd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.7127th
Turnover margin+94th · exp. +7.5
Field position margin+10.2 yd4th
Hidden points / game+9.5banked
Luck, wins+0.84.2 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 4–1
Rush rate over expected+5.2%23rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+12.513th
Schedule played−0.680th
Schedule remaining+3.062nd
Full schedule+1.564th
Pregame expected wins1.2of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 13th · +12.5AP 12thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
UCLAoff +0.15 45thdef −0.15 allowed · 9th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
UCLAoff +0.15 45thdef −0.15 allowed · 9th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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