LockSZNTeam
Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs RUTG · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Maryland

2–4 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
−1.4
Rank
77
Résumé
80
Projected wins
4.2
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5HamptonHamptonMD −27.5MD −45.5W 62–090
Sat, Sep 129/12at UConnCONNMD +4.7MD −13.0W 38–1473CONN · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Virginia TechVTMD −5.8MD +3.0L 26–3548MD · L
Sat, Sep 269/26UCLAUCLAMD +0.7MD +2.0L 3–5428MD · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at NebraskaNEBMD +18.0MD +14.5L 23–4823NEB · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Ohio StateOSUMD +32.9MD +35.0L 16–4533MD · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17RutgersRUTGMD −10.1MD −6.0MD −6.0Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31IllinoisILLMD +5.0—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at PurduePURMD +4.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14WisconsinWISMD +11.6—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at USCUSCMD +18.1—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Penn StatePSUMD +6.4—wk 13

Model on MD games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 1–3, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +6.3 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.22–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.2
Bowl (6+)3%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.00101st
Success rate39.0%118th
Pass EPA−0.02106th
Rush EPA+0.0488th
Explosive rate11.8%96th
Quality-drive rate46.8%93rd
Points per quality drive3.4108th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0689th
Success allowed43.8%97th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0349th
Rush EPA allowed+0.16120th
Explosive allowed11.8%73rd
Havoc rate11.1%35th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.595th
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−0.8 yd85th
Hidden points / game−2.1gave up
Luck, wins−0.42.4 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−8.4%129th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.477th
Schedule played+10.73rd
Schedule remaining+3.061st
Full schedule+6.522nd
Pregame expected wins1.5of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 77th · −1.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMDgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Marylandoff +0.00 101stdef +0.06 allowed · 89th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.