Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5in trend: High totals go under
Purdue
3–3 · Ours #106 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–17FinalWe had PUR 21 – ILL 38
Illinois
3–3 · Ours #55 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ILL 85%PUR won
ILL 85%PUR wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ILL −10.ILL −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.8 · PUR covered by 16.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.7.62final 41 · under by 21
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ILL −10Llost 0.5 to the close
ILL −10Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Ryan Browne18/27 · 255 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4782nd pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Katin Houser21/38 · 225 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0645th pct
- Comp %
- 55.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Purdueoffense | Played like PUR +2.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIllinois | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 45.0%▼1.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▲4.0 | 39th |
| 58th | +0.11▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11▲0.24 | 42nd |
| 84th | +0.47▲0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.47▲0.04 | 16th |
| 21st | −0.18▼0.29 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.38 | 79th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Illinoisoffense | defensePurdue | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 43.1%▼7.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.1%▲8.6 | 45th |
| 49th | +0.04▼0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.21 | 51st |
| 50th | +0.06▼0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.29 | 50th |
| 48th | +0.02▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.01 | 52nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| PurduePUR | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2635th | Own 2953rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.4 pts84th | −1.0 pts23rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6059th | 6573rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +0.251st | −0.249th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.9 pts9th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PUR +3.1: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.8, kicking +1.7, 4th downs +1.2, penalty first downs −1.5. | +3.166th | −3.134th |
Season so far
Purdue3–3 · 4th-hardest schedule
Wvs Indiana State44–19missed −35
L
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3L
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5L
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5Wat Illinois24–17covered +9.5
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5W
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5Illinois3–3 · 38th-hardest schedule
W
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5L
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5Wvs Southern Illinois48–10covered −35.5
L
at Ohio State19–42covered +26
at Ohio State19–42covered +26Lvs Purdue17–24missed −9.5
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5W
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is