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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs WASH · Fri, Oct 16 · 8:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Purdue

3–3 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
−0.1
Rank
66
Résumé
46
Projected wins
4.9▲ 2.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4Indiana StateIndiana StatePUR −27.6PUR −35.0W 44–1986
Sat, Sep 129/12Wake ForestWAKEPUR +4.0PUR +4.5L 36–3860PUR · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at UCLAUCLAPUR +14.9PUR +14.0L 38–5249UCLA · Push
Sat, Sep 269/26Notre DameNDPUR +29.1PUR +27.5L 10–495ND · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at IllinoisILLPUR +16.8PUR +10.0W 24–1755ILL · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10MinnesotaMINNPUR +5.9PUR +2.5W 41–1368MINN · L
Fri, Oct 1610/16WashingtonWASHPUR +1.4PUR −3.5WASH +3.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Penn StatePSUPUR +9.0—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7MarylandMDPUR −4.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at IowaIOWAPUR +16.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21WisconsinWISPUR +9.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at IndianaIUPUR +22.7—wk 13

Model on PUR games: 2–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 1–0 · home 1–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.93–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 2.8
Bowl (6+)8%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2124th
Success rate47.9%35th
Pass EPA+0.3122nd
Rush EPA+0.1154th
Explosive rate14.7%31st
Quality-drive rate63.8%11th
Points per quality drive4.447th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.17117th
Success allowed46.5%123rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.18109th
Rush EPA allowed+0.15116th
Explosive allowed18.6%138th
Havoc rate5.9%129th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.934th
Turnover margin+158th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin+0.4 yd68th
Hidden points / game+2.7banked
Luck, wins−0.93.9 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−3.2%88th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.166th
Schedule played+10.04th
Schedule remaining+8.126th
Full schedule+9.010th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 66th · −0.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StateGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUPURgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Purdueoff +0.21 24thdef +0.17 allowed · 117th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.