Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Maryland
2–4 · Ours #77 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–48FinalWe had MD 18 – NEB 36
Nebraska
5–1 · Ours #16 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NEB 86%NEB won
NEB 86%NEB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NEB −13.5.NEB −15oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −18 · NEB covered by 10
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.1.52.5final 71 · over by 18.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NEB −14.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
NEB −14.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Malik Washington23/44 · 254 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.456th pct
- Comp %
- 52.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Anthony Colandrea26/39 · 238 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1149th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Marylandoffense | Played like NEB +26.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNebraska | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | 26.8%▼11.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.8%▲7.3 | 90th |
| 9th | −0.30▼0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.13 | 91st |
| 6th | −0.54▼0.53 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.54▲0.38 | 94th |
| 63rd | +0.13▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.32 | 37th |
| 16th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.5 | 84th |
| Nebraskaoffense | defenseMaryland | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75th | 49.3%▲0.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.3%▼5.5 | 25th |
| 63rd | +0.15▼0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.08 | 37th |
| 45th | +0.01▼0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.06 | 55th |
| 87th | +0.34▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.14 | 13th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MarylandMD | NebraskaNEB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3480th | Own 3272nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.6 pts88th | −1.6 pts14th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5648th | 7185th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −15.016th | +15.084th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 8100th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts72nd | −0.5 pts23rd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NEB +5.2: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.6, kicking −2.3, 4th downs −1.0, penalty first downs +2.3, return touchdowns +4.2. | −5.227th | +5.273rd |
Season so far
Maryland2–4 · 3rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Hampton62–0covered −45.5
W
at UConn38–14covered −11.5
at UConn38–14covered −11.5L
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5L
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5Lat Nebraska23–48missed +15
at Nebraska23–48missed +15L
at Ohio State16–45covered +31
at Ohio State16–45covered +31Nebraska5–1 · 73rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Ohio49–21covered −24
vs Ohio49–21covered −24W
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5Wvs North Dakota34–7missed −27.5
W
at Michigan State31–13covered −6
at Michigan State31–13covered −6Wvs Maryland48–23covered −15
vs Maryland48–23covered −15L
vs Indiana17–20covered +9
vs Indiana17–20covered +9Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is