Week 5 report · Fri, Oct 2 · 2026 Week 5
Penn State
3–3 · Ours #15 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–34FinalWe had PSU 27 – NU 24
Northwestern
4–1 · Ours #36 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.PSU 57%NU won
PSU 57%NU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PSU −2.5.PSU −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.9 · NU covered by 23.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.3.46.5final 47 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.PSU −2.5Lmatched the close
PSU −2.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Rocco Becht26/41 · 243 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 63.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Aidan Chiles10/14 · 93 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.428th pct
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Penn Stateoffense | Played like NU +16.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorthwestern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.5%▲0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.5%▲3.8 | 50th |
| 29th | −0.10▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.15 | 72nd |
| 29th | −0.16▼0.45 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.20 | 71st |
| 47th | +0.01▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.02 | 53rd |
| 16th | 2▼1.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 84th |
| Northwesternoffense | defensePenn State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90th | 57.8%▲9.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 57.8%▼24.3 | 10th |
| 66th | +0.17▼0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.29 | 34th |
| 11th | −0.42▼0.93 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.42▲0.17 | 89th |
| 88th | +0.36▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.37 | 12th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Penn StatePSU | NorthwesternNU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2635th | Own 2848th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.0 pts9th | +0.2 pts49th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5342nd | 6470th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.725th | +9.775th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts78th | −0.7 pts14th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NU +1.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.6, kicking +1.5, 4th downs −1.6, penalty first downs −1.5. | −1.641st | +1.659th |
Season so far
Penn State3–3 · 64th-hardest schedule
W
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5W
at Temple27–9missed −24
at Temple27–9missed −24W
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40L
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10Lat Northwestern13–34missed −2.5
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5L
vs USC23–31missed +1
vs USC23–31missed +1Northwestern4–1 · 60th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5L
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5Wvs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 2, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is