LockSZN
Aug 28, 12:06 PM EDTupdated
Rankings · College

Penn State

0–0 FBS · Big Ten · 2026
Rating
+11.1
Rank
22
Résumé
—
Our picks
—
2026 preseasonRating and rank begin with last season's strength. The record, résumé, and team-performance report start fresh when games are played.View Penn State's 2025 final page
Projected wins · our pregame odds for every game left
9.1projected wins · 12 games
Bowl (6+)94%
9+ wins66%
11+ wins28%

Preseason odds: every line starts from last season and offseason inputs, so this moves most in September. Bands come from the playoff simulation, which carries team-quality uncertainty — early-season spread is honestly wide.

Ranking by week151025Wk 0Wk 7Wk 14Wk 23
Ours 22ndAP NRFinal

Playoff picture

from 10,000 season simulations
Reach title game20%
Win conference8%
Make the CFP40%
First-round bye13%
Win it all2%
  • a CFP bid: 44% with a win vs Marshall, 10% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for San José State over USC — swings a CFP bid between 40% and 45%.

Simulated from our pregame win probability for every remaining game; the CFP field is picked by a committee stand-in, so treat those odds as model-derived. Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Luck & what-ifs

2025 final
One-score record
1–5
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
−3.1
6–6 vs 9.1
One-score games flipped
10–2
what-if record
Turnover margin
+9
expected −2.5

Luck: −0.9 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.

ConjPWR profile

2025 final · 19th · +11.3 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.524th
Offense play value+2.430th
Defense efficiency+1.239th
Defense play value+2.233rd
Drive finishing+1.022nd
Field position+2.06th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.021st
Third-down conversion0.060th

Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.1 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.

Hidden game

special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+2.4
12th
Havoc rate
10.3%
83rd
Rush rate over expected
+2.3%
41st · run-leaning

The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageKansas StateIowa StateKansasFresno StateWestern KentuckySam HoustonHawai'iStanfordSouth FloridaBoise StateRutgersOhioAkronWyomingNC StateEast CarolinaUCFJacksonville StateMinnesotaBuffaloCincinnatiNebraskaWisconsinMiami (OH)Michigan StateWestern MichiganCharlotteApp StateWake ForestKennesaw StateBaylorAuburnColoradoGeorgia TechUNLVSan José StateCentral MichiganMarylandFlorida AtlanticPurdueBall StateTennesseeSyracuseSouthern MissMississippi StateOhio StateTexasTulaneNorthwesternKentuckyToledoIndianaOld DominionNevadaFlorida StateAlabamaMassachusettsTempleGeorgiaMarshallVirginiaCoastal CarolinaTexas A&MUTSAUtah StateUTEPClemsonLSUMichiganNew MexicoUSCMissouri StateOle MissGeorgia StateLouisianaRiceTexas StateEastern MichiganGeorgia SouthernOregon StateCaliforniaArizonaWashingtonColorado StateUCLAUtahSouth CarolinaVirginia TechMiamiNotre DameNorth CarolinaTCULouisvilleJames MadisonNorthern IllinoisPittsburghFlorida InternationalIowaDukeIllinoisLibertyUConnTexas TechKent StateSMUDelawareTroyMissouriBowling GreenOregonOklahoma StateNorth TexasNavyUABMiddle TennesseeWest VirginiaFloridaArkansasArkansas StateMemphisArmySouth AlabamaHoustonVanderbiltLouisiana TechOklahomaArizona StateBoston CollegeUL MonroeNew Mexico StateTulsaBYUWashington StateSan Diego StateAir ForcePSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Penn Stateoff +0.07 44thdef +0.05 74th

Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Pick record · our line vs the close
5–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite2–6
Pick was the dog3–1
Home / away side2–4 / 3–3
Average gap to the close+6.4 pts
Our line beat the close4 of 12

Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.

Schedule strength

opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+5.821st
Full season+5.821st

Upcoming

our line · the market · play or pass at a DK/FD price
DateOpponentOur lineMarketOur call
Sat, Sep 5MarshallPSU −21.2PSU −24.5MRSH +24.5Pass
Sat, Sep 12at TemplePSU −16.9—no line
Sat, Sep 19BuffaloPSU −26.6—no line
Sat, Sep 26WisconsinPSU −17.1—no line
Fri, Oct 2at NorthwesternPSU −8.8—no line
Sat, Oct 10USCPSU −3.3—no line
Sat, Oct 17at MichiganPSU −1.1—no line
Sat, Oct 31PurduePSU −20.9—no line
Sat, Nov 7at WashingtonPSU +1.1—no line
Sat, Nov 14MinnesotaPSU −14.8—no line
Sat, Nov 21RutgersPSU −13.5—no line
Sat, Nov 28at MarylandPSU −13.0—no line

How to read this page

EPA/playExpected points added per play.
Success rateShare of plays gaining enough for the down.
Quality driveA drive reaching a first down inside the opponent's 40.
Points per QDFinishing — points scored per quality drive.
QD ratioOur quality drives against theirs. Game control.
RROERush rate over expected for down, distance, score and time.
Game percentileThis performance against every FBS game this season.
Expected winsOur pregame win probabilities summed — computed exactly, no simulations.
Havoc rateTFLs, sacks, passes defensed, forced fumbles per defensive snap.
Second-order winsThe record a team's play-by-play performance deserved.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Every number comes from a leak-checked walk-forward pipeline — no retroactive edits, no deleted picks. Picks grade against the closing line. Rate stats exclude garbage time (win probability outside 5–95%); turnovers are counted whole. Not betting advice.