Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Ball State
1–5 · Ours #133 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–45FinalWe had BALL 7 – NU 43
Northwestern
4–1 · Ours #15 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NU 98%NU won
NU 98%NU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NU −35.NU −35oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −35.6 · BALL covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.8.53final 59 · over by 6
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BALL +36Wbeat the close by 1.0
BALL +36Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Keldric Luster27/41 · 209 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0337th pct
- Comp %
- 65.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Aidan Chiles17/23 · 272 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7394th pct
- Comp %
- 73.9
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ball Stateoffense | Played like NU +24.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorthwestern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48th | 41.2%▲9.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.2%▲4.2 | 52nd |
| 34th | −0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.09 | 66th |
| 57th | +0.14▲0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.19 | 43rd |
| 7th | −0.38▼0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.38▲0.51 | 93rd |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| Northwesternoffense | defenseBall State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 54.5%▲5.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 54.5%▼6.3 | 14th |
| 90th | +0.42▲0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.13 | 10th |
| 92nd | +0.63▲0.46 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.63▼0.18 | 8th |
| 71st | +0.19▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.10 | 29th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ball StateBALL | NorthwesternNU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2210th | Own 2417th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.6 pts14th | +1.4 pts82nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5138th | 4427th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −17.912th | +17.988th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.2 pts97th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 299th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NU +14.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.5, kicking +2.1, 4th downs −0.9, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +8.3. | −14.23rd | +14.297th |
Season so far
Ball State1–5 · 32nd-hardest schedule
L
at Ohio State3–56missed +50
at Ohio State3–56missed +50Wvs Stony Brook41–17covered −13.5
L
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5L
at Kent State13–26missed +3
at Kent State13–26missed +3L
vs Toledo24–39covered +21
vs Toledo24–39covered +21Lat Northwestern14–45covered +35
at Northwestern14–45covered +35Northwestern4–1 · 60th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5L
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5W
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5Wvs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is