LockSZNTeam
Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at BGSU · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ball State

1–5 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−16.1
Rank
131
Résumé
126
Projected wins
3.3▲ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at Ohio StateOSUBALL +50.4BALL +50.5L 3–567BALL · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Stony BrookStony BrookBALL −28.8BALL −13.5W 41–1776
Sat, Sep 199/19at LibertyLIBBALL +22.4BALL +14.5L 15–5128LIB · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Kent StateKENTBALL +4.7BALL +3.5L 13–2642KENT · W
Sat, Oct 310/3ToledoTOLBALL +23.0BALL +19.5L 24–3946TOL · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at NorthwesternNUBALL +35.6BALL +36.0L 14–4522BALL · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Bowling GreenBGSUBALL +6.9BALL +6.5BGSU −6.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24Sacramento StateSACBALL −5.5—wk 8
Wed, Nov 411/4at MassachusettsMASSBALL +6.1—wk 10
Wed, Nov 1111/11BuffaloBUFBALL +4.0—wk 11
Tue, Nov 1711/17at OhioOHIOBALL +18.9—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Central MichiganCMUBALL +0.8—wk 13

Model on BALL games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.31–5 banked, 6 to play · preseason 2.9
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0198th
Success rate35.4%129th
Pass EPA+0.0874th
Rush EPA−0.07120th
Explosive rate9.3%127th
Quality-drive rate34.5%134th
Points per quality drive4.544th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.20130th
Success allowed44.5%105th
Pass EPA allowed+0.29128th
Rush EPA allowed+0.11103rd
Explosive allowed15.7%131st
Havoc rate8.3%89th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.592nd
Turnover margin−6125th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin−0.4 yd81st
Hidden points / game−6.9gave up
Luck, wins−0.41.4 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−3.5%91st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−16.1131st
Schedule played+3.932nd
Schedule remaining−12.1136th
Full schedule−4.899th
Pregame expected wins0.6of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 131st · −16.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBALLgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Ball Stateoff +0.01 98thdef +0.20 allowed · 130th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.