Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Maryland
2–4 · Ours #77 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–45FinalWe had MD 10 – OSU 43
AP #5Ohio State
5–1 · Ours #4 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OSU 98%OSU won
OSU 98%OSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OSU −35.OSU −31oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −32.9 · MD covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.6.56.5final 61 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MD +35Wbeat the close by 4.0
MD +35Wbeat the close by 4.0Quarterbacksthis game
Malik Washington12/25 · 64 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.399th pct
- Comp %
- 48.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Julian Sayin13/20 · 242 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2866th pct
- Comp %
- 65.0
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Marylandoffense | Played like OSU +19.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOhio State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7th | 25.0%▼13.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 25.0%▲7.5 | 93rd |
| 11th | −0.28▼0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.15 | 89th |
| 10th | −0.43▼0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.26 | 90th |
| 26th | −0.14▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.08 | 74th |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Ohio Stateoffense | defenseMaryland | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 49.0%▼5.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.0%▼5.1 | 27th |
| 45th | +0.02▼0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.10 | 55th |
| 20th | −0.29▼0.81 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.31 | 81st |
| 76th | +0.23▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23 | 24th |
| 16th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MarylandMD | Ohio StateOSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2635th | Own 3273rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts68th | +0.8 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4833rd | 5139th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −33.22nd | +33.298th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts30th | +0.9 pts92nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MD +3.5: turnovers +5.2, field position −2.1, 4th downs −1.6, penalty first downs −2.3, return touchdowns +4.2. | +3.568th | −3.533rd |
Season so far
Maryland2–4 · 3rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Hampton62–0covered −45.5
W
at UConn38–14covered −11.5
at UConn38–14covered −11.5L
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5L
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5L
at Nebraska23–48missed +15
at Nebraska23–48missed +15Lat Ohio State16–45covered +31
at Ohio State16–45covered +31Ohio State5–1 · 81st-hardest schedule
W
vs Ball State56–3covered −50
vs Ball State56–3covered −50L
at Texas23–24covered +2
at Texas23–24covered +2W
vs Kent State59–3covered −52
vs Kent State59–3covered −52W
vs Illinois42–19missed −26
vs Illinois42–19missed −26W
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5Wvs Maryland45–16missed −31
vs Maryland45–16missed −31Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is