Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ohio State
5–1 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+23.6
Rank
3
Résumé
21
Projected wins
9.9▲ 0.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
89%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on OSU games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–2, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.0 · closer than the market 3 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
9.95–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 9.3
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins91%
11+ wins30%
The 6 games left add 4.9 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game72%
Win conference48%
Make the CFP89%
First-round bye53%
Win it all13%
- A CFP bid: 96% with a win vs Indiana, 76% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2219th
Success rate52.5%5th
Pass EPA+0.426th
Rush EPA+0.0295th
Explosive rate14.0%42nd
Quality-drive rate58.2%32nd
Points per quality drive5.112th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0923rd
Success allowed34.9%19th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1523rd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0062nd
Explosive allowed8.3%10th
Havoc rate6.9%116th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.594th
Turnover margin069th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+6.1 yd17th
Hidden points / game+1.0banked
Luck, wins+0.15.0 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 6–0
Rush rate over expected−3.7%94th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+23.63rd
Schedule played−0.781st
Schedule remaining+11.67th
Full schedule+5.533rd
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 3rd · +23.6AP 4thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Ohio Stateoff +0.22 19thdef −0.09 allowed · 23rd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Ohio Stateoff +0.22 19thdef −0.09 allowed · 23rd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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