Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ohio State

5–1 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+23.6
Rank
3
Résumé
21
Projected wins
9.9▲ 0.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
89%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Ball StateBALLOSU −50.4OSU −50.5W 56–393BALL · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at TexasTEXOSU +0.8OSU +1.5L 23–2437OSU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19Kent StateKENTOSU −55.9OSU −52.0W 59–392OSU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26IllinoisILLOSU −27.7OSU −27.0W 42–1958OSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at IowaIOWAOSU −11.6OSU −14.0W 31–1479IOWA · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10MarylandMDOSU −32.9OSU −35.0W 45–1667MD · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at IndianaIUOSU −6.9OSU −3.5OSU −3.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31at USCUSCOSU −13.8—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7OregonOREOSU −15.8OSU −6.0wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at NebraskaNEBOSU −13.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28MichiganMICHOSU −19.8OSU −13.5wk 13

Model on OSU games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–2, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.0 · closer than the market 3 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.95–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 9.3
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins91%
11+ wins30%

The 6 games left add 4.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game72%
Win conference48%
Make the CFP89%
First-round bye53%
Win it all13%
  • A CFP bid: 96% with a win vs Indiana, 76% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2219th
Success rate52.5%5th
Pass EPA+0.426th
Rush EPA+0.0295th
Explosive rate14.0%42nd
Quality-drive rate58.2%32nd
Points per quality drive5.112th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0923rd
Success allowed34.9%19th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1523rd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0062nd
Explosive allowed8.3%10th
Havoc rate6.9%116th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.594th
Turnover margin069th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+6.1 yd17th
Hidden points / game+1.0banked
Luck, wins+0.15.0 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 6–0
Rush rate over expected−3.7%94th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+23.63rd
Schedule played−0.781st
Schedule remaining+11.67th
Full schedule+5.533rd
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 3rd · +23.6AP 4thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUOSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Ohio Stateoff +0.22 19thdef −0.09 allowed · 23rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.