Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6in trend: High totals go under
AP #21UCLA
5–0 · Ours #18 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–15FinalWe had UCLA 25 – ORE 33
AP #13Oregon
3–2 · Ours #11 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ORE 69%UCLA won
ORE 69%UCLA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ORE −11.5.ORE −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.9 · UCLA covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.3.58final 32 · under by 26
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UCLA +12Wbeat the close by 1.5
UCLA +12Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Nico Iamaleava10/17 · 162 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2616th pct
- Comp %
- 58.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q2 by Ty Dieffenbach
Dylan Raiola6/19 · 43 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −1.201st pct
- Comp %
- 31.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q4 by Brock Thomas
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCLAoffense | Played like UCLA +6.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOregon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27th | 34.8%▼14.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.8%▲6.1 | 73rd |
| 13th | −0.24▼0.47 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.23 | 87th |
| 33rd | −0.12▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.08 | 67th |
| 11th | −0.30▼0.80 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.33 | 89th |
| 16th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 84th |
| Oregonoffense | defenseUCLA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 28.3%▼12.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.3%▲6.5 | 89th |
| 6th | −0.38▼0.51 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.38▲0.27 | 94th |
| 11th | −0.41▼0.68 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.41▲0.23 | 89th |
| 10th | −0.32▼0.30 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.23 | 90th |
| 0th | 5▼5.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 5▲2.5 | 100th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCLAUCLA | OregonORE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3480th | Own 3166th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.6 pts5th | +0.3 pts52nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6982nd | 6059th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +0.150th | −0.150th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts18th | −0.3 pts31st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UCLA +7.5: turnovers +10.4, field position +1.0, kicking −2.0, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs −1.5. | +7.581st | −7.519th |
Season so far
UCLA5–0 · 80th-hardest schedule
W
at California45–24covered −2.5
at California45–24covered −2.5W
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5W
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5W
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5Wat Oregon17–15covered +10.5
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5Oregon3–2 · 9th-hardest schedule
W
vs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25L
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
W
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameLvs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is