2026 preseasonRating and rank begin with last season's strength. The record, résumé, and team-performance report start fresh when games are played.View Oregon's 2025 final page
Projected wins · our pregame odds for every game left
8.4projected wins · 12 games
Bowl (6+)93%
9+ wins55%
11+ wins11%
Preseason odds: every line starts from last season and offseason inputs, so this moves most in September. Bands come from the playoff simulation, which carries team-quality uncertainty — early-season spread is honestly wide.
Ranking by week
Ours 5thAP 4thFinal
Playoff picture
from 10,000 season simulations
Reach title game29%
Win conference14%
Make the CFP52%
First-round bye21%
Win it all6%
a CFP bid: 57% with a win vs Boise State, 15% with a loss.
Simulated from our pregame win probability for every remaining game; the CFP field is picked by a committee stand-in, so treat those odds as model-derived. Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Luck & what-ifs
2025 final
One-score record
2–0
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+2.3
12–2 vs 9.7
One-score games flipped
10–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+1
expected +5.0
Luck: +2.8 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.
ConjPWR profile
2025 final · 6th · +18.4 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+4.37th
Offense play value+4.115th
Defense efficiency+4.09th
Defense play value+3.518th
Drive finishing+1.118th
Field position+1.316th
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.011th
Third-down conversion−0.0102nd
Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +2.2 pts/game to results — ran hot; in CFB that pace regresses.
Hidden game
special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
+0.1
61st
Havoc rate
10.0%
85th
Rush rate over expected
−2.9%
93rd · pass-leaning
The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
Oregonoff +0.08 43rddef −0.11 14th
Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Pick record · our line vs the close
7–7against the closing line
Pick was the favorite4–4
Pick was the dog3–3
Home / away side3–3 / 4–4
Average gap to the close+3.0 pts
Our line beat the close6 of 14
Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.
Schedule strength
opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+8.56th
Full season+8.56th
Upcoming
our line · the market · play or pass at a DK/FD price
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