Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
AP #19USC
6–1 · Ours #30 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–23FinalWe had USC 29 – PSU 27
Penn State
3–3 · Ours #24 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USC 56%USC won
USC 56%USC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USC −1.5.USC −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.2 · USC covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.9.54.5final 54 · under by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USC +1.5Wbeat the close by 2.5
USC +1.5Wbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Jayden Maiava21/33 · 301 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6089th pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Rocco Becht21/32 · 289 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2968th pct
- Comp %
- 65.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| USCoffense | Played like USC +12.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePenn State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.8%▼1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.8%▼15.9 | 22nd |
| 83rd | +0.32▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.46 | 18th |
| 90th | +0.60▲0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.60▼1.05 | 10th |
| 40th | −0.03▼0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.09 | 60th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Penn Stateoffense | defenseUSC | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38th | 38.1%▼3.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.1%▲0.8 | 63rd |
| 54th | +0.08▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.01 | 46th |
| 64th | +0.21▼0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▲0.02 | 36th |
| 34th | −0.07▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▼0.01 | 66th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| USCUSC | Penn StatePSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2314th | Own 3377th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.6 pts27th | +2.1 pts96th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6162nd | 6367th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +14.684th | −14.617th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.9 pts92nd | +1.9 pts100th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PSU +3.5: turnovers −2.6, field position +3.5, kicking +2.0, 4th downs +1.4, penalty first downs −0.8. | −3.532nd | +3.568th |
Season so far
USC6–1 · 68th-hardest schedule
W
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5W
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5W
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31W
at Rutgers42–35missed −21
at Rutgers42–35missed −21L
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5W
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5Wat Penn State31–23covered −1
at Penn State31–23covered −1Penn State3–3 · 64th-hardest schedule
W
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5W
at Temple27–9missed −24
at Temple27–9missed −24W
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40L
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10L
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5Lvs USC23–31missed +1
vs USC23–31missed +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is