Week 6 report · Fri, Oct 9 · 2026 Week 6
AP #20Iowa
5–1 · Ours #33 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
41–24FinalWe had IOWA 23 – WASH 22
Washington
3–3 · Ours #51 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.IOWA 51%IOWA won
IOWA 51%IOWA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WASH −2.5.WASH −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · IOWA covered by 20
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 44.8.40.5final 65 · over by 24.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.IOWA +2.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
IOWA +2.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jeremy Hecklinski14/19 · 202 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4782nd pct
- Comp %
- 73.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Elijah Brown28/40 · 251 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4681st pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Replaced Demond Williams Jr. in Q2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Iowaoffense | Played like IOWA +16.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWashington | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96th | 64.6%▲26.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 64.6%▼28.6 | 4th |
| 86th | +0.36▲0.37 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.45 | 14th |
| 84th | +0.47▲0.45 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.47▼0.54 | 16th |
| 83rd | +0.29▲0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.39 | 17th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
| Washingtonoffense | defenseIowa | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 36.8%▼4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.8%▼4.3 | 67th |
| 60th | +0.12▲0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.24 | 40th |
| 77th | +0.35▲0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.29 | 23rd |
| 5th | −0.43▼0.36 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.20 | 95th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| IowaIOWA | WashingtonWASH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3374th | Own 204th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.7 pts89th | +0.4 pts55th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4833rd | 5751st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +20.190th | −20.110th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +1.1 pts95th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WASH +0.1: field position −4.3, kicking −0.9, 4th downs +1.5, penalty first downs +3.9. | −0.149th | +0.151st |
Season so far
Iowa5–1 · 37th-hardest schedule
W
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31W
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14Wvs Northern Iowa55–0covered −37.5
W
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5L
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5Wat Washington41–24covered +3
at Washington41–24covered +3Washington3–3 · 55th-hardest schedule
W
vs Washington State24–10missed −24
vs Washington State24–10missed −24W
vs Utah State16–14missed −28
vs Utah State16–14missed −28Wvs Eastern Washington48–16missed −43
L
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12L
at USC21–25covered +7.5
at USC21–25covered +7.5Lvs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-game
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-gameModel cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 9, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is