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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at MINN · Sat, Oct 24 · time TBD →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Iowa

5–1 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+11.6
Rank
17
Résumé
18
Projected wins
9.0▲ 1.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
22%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Northern IllinoisNIUIOWA −27.3IOWA −31.5W 40–092NIU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Iowa StateISUIOWA −15.6IOWA −14.5W 16–1352ISU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19Northern IowaNorthern IowaIOWA −40.5IOWA −37.5W 55–096
Sat, Sep 269/26at MichiganMICHIOWA +6.6IOWA +4.5W 20–1944MICH · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Ohio StateOSUIOWA +11.6IOWA +14.0L 14–3121IOWA · L
Fri, Oct 910/9at WashingtonWASHIOWA PKIOWA +2.5W 41–2463IOWA · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at MinnesotaMINNIOWA −12.6—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31WisconsinWISIOWA −4.8—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at NorthwesternNUIOWA −2.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14PurduePURIOWA −16.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at IllinoisILLIOWA −6.4—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27NebraskaNEBIOWA −2.9—wk 13

Model on IOWA games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 0–2, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.05–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 7.1
Bowl (6+)98%
9+ wins38%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 4.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game7%
Win conference3%
Make the CFP22%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Notre Dame over BYU — swings a CFP bid between 20% and 23%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1448th
Success rate47.0%40th
Pass EPA+0.1552nd
Rush EPA+0.1347th
Explosive rate13.5%51st
Quality-drive rate50.9%76th
Points per quality drive4.824th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0054th
Success allowed37.2%32nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.23117th
Rush EPA allowed−0.225th
Explosive allowed10.4%45th
Havoc rate9.7%55th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.023rd
Turnover margin+249th · exp. +2.5
Field position margin+4.2 yd30th
Hidden points / game+2.2banked
Luck, wins+0.84.2 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−4.7%104th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+11.617th
Schedule played+3.637th
Schedule remaining+5.540th
Full schedule+4.642nd
Pregame expected wins3.1of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 17th · +11.6AP 17thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUIOWAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Iowaoff +0.14 48thdef −0.00 allowed · 54th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.