Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Washington

3–3 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+1.1
Rank
60
Résumé
91
Projected wins
5.1▼ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sun, Sep 69/6Washington StateWSUWASH −13.4WASH −23.5W 24–1055WSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Utah StateUSUWASH −32.6WASH −26.5W 16–1452WASH · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Eastern WashingtonEastern WashingtonWASH −38.4WASH −43.0W 48–1675
Sat, Sep 269/26MinnesotaMINNWASH −8.7WASH −9.5L 24–2745WASH · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at USCUSCWASH +9.3WASH +9.5L 21–2553WASH · W
Fri, Oct 910/9IowaIOWAWASH PKWASH −2.5L 24–4137IOWA · W
Fri, Oct 1610/16at PurduePURWASH −1.4WASH +3.5WASH +3.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31at NebraskaNEBWASH +12.4—wk 9
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Michigan StateMSUWASH −1.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21IndianaIUWASH +14.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at OregonOREWASH +14.7WASH +15.5wk 13

Model on WASH games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 3–0 · home 0–2, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +4.8 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.13–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.7
Bowl (6+)13%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0583rd
Success rate43.0%71st
Pass EPA+0.1355th
Rush EPA−0.08121st
Explosive rate12.3%82nd
Quality-drive rate52.2%70th
Points per quality drive4.074th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0055th
Success allowed41.2%73rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0781st
Rush EPA allowed−0.0632nd
Explosive allowed11.2%59th
Havoc rate11.0%36th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.250th
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +2.5
Field position margin−0.7 yd84th
Hidden points / game+2.7banked
Luck, wins−0.53.5 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected−13.0%135th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+1.160th
Schedule played+1.655th
Schedule remaining+8.127th
Full schedule+5.138th
Pregame expected wins2.2of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 60th · +1.1AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWASHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Washingtonoff +0.05 83rddef +0.00 allowed · 55th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.