Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Washington
3–3 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+1.1
Rank
60
Résumé
91
Projected wins
5.1▼ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on WASH games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 3–0 · home 0–2, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +4.8 · closer than the market 3 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
5.13–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.7
Bowl (6+)13%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 2.1 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0583rd
Success rate43.0%71st
Pass EPA+0.1355th
Rush EPA−0.08121st
Explosive rate12.3%82nd
Quality-drive rate52.2%70th
Points per quality drive4.074th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0055th
Success allowed41.2%73rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0781st
Rush EPA allowed−0.0632nd
Explosive allowed11.2%59th
Havoc rate11.0%36th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.250th
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +2.5
Field position margin−0.7 yd84th
Hidden points / game+2.7banked
Luck, wins−0.53.5 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected−13.0%135th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+1.160th
Schedule played+1.655th
Schedule remaining+8.127th
Full schedule+5.138th
Pregame expected wins2.2of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 60th · +1.1AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Washingtonoff +0.05 83rddef +0.00 allowed · 55th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Washingtonoff +0.05 83rddef +0.00 allowed · 55th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.



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