2026 preseasonRating and rank begin with last season's strength. The record, résumé, and team-performance report start fresh when games are played.View Washington's 2025 final page
Projected wins · our pregame odds for every game left
6.7projected wins · 12 games
Bowl (6+)72%
9+ wins22%
11+ wins3%
Preseason odds: every line starts from last season and offseason inputs, so this moves most in September. Bands come from the playoff simulation, which carries team-quality uncertainty — early-season spread is honestly wide.
Scoreboard watch: root for Fresno State over USC — swings a CFP bid between 22% and 27%.
Simulated from our pregame win probability for every remaining game; the CFP field is picked by a committee stand-in, so treat those odds as model-derived. Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Luck & what-ifs
2025 final
One-score record
1–1
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+0.2
8–4 vs 7.8
One-score games flipped
8–4
what-if record
Turnover margin
+7
expected +6.0
Luck: −0.7 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.
ConjPWR profile
2025 final · 15th · +12.9 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+3.513th
Offense play value+3.720th
Defense efficiency+2.226th
Defense play value+2.134th
Drive finishing+1.216th
Field position+0.253rd
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security+0.040th
Third-down conversion−0.0102nd
Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added +1.4 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.
Hidden game
special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.7
92nd
Havoc rate
8.0%
121st
Rush rate over expected
−2.6%
88th · pass-leaning
The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
Washingtonoff +0.15 18thdef −0.07 23rd
Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Pick record · our line vs the close
9–3against the closing line
Pick was the favorite7–1
Pick was the dog2–2
Home / away side5–1 / 4–2
Average gap to the close+2.8 pts
Our line beat the close9 of 12
Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.
Schedule strength
opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played+3.638th
Full season+3.638th
Upcoming
our line · the market · play or pass at a DK/FD price
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