Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Penn State
3–3 · Ours #35Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–28Our projected score
Michigan
3–2 · Ours #34Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.MICH 69%
MICH 69%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.MICH −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.8 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −5.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.42.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 49.1 · opened 42.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.MICH −6.5-105 FanDuel51% to cover · -1.2% EV
MICH −6.5-105 FanDuel51% to cover · -1.2% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Rocco BechtSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2046th
- Comp %
- 62.7
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
Bryce UnderwoodSophomore · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1361st
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Michiganoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defensePenn State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76th | +0.08 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.02 | 40th |
| 78th | 42.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 40.3% | 65th |
| 58th | +0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.18 | 16th |
| 87th | +0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.14 | 109th |
| 111th | 10.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.8% | 92nd |
| Penn Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMichigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92nd | +0.03 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.15 | 13th |
| 110th | 39.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 33.5% | 12th |
| 56th | +0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.18 | 17th |
| 124th | −0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.12 | 18th |
| 94th | 11.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 8.9% | 17th |
Team stats
| MichiganMICH | Penn StatePSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −3.5124th | +1.348th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −2.6104th | +7.612th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 42%114th | 53%66th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.9082nd | 3.8785th |
| Time of possession | 28:0082nd | 22:00134th |
| Plays per game | 58130th | 6670th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −1 | +7 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 7 – 6 | 6 – 13 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 12.1%18th | 9.5%60th |
Season so far
Penn State3–3 · 64th-hardest schedule
W
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5W
at Temple27–9missed −24
at Temple27–9missed −24W
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40L
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10L
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5L
vs USC23–31missed +1
vs USC23–31missed +1Michigan3–2 · 71st-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5W
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5W
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5L
at Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is