Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
AP #25Northwestern
4–1 · Ours #26Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–22Our projected score
Michigan State
2–4 · Ours #75Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.NU 69%
NU 69%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.NU −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.9 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −9.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.48.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 52.2 · opened 47.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.NU −7.5-110 DraftKings50% to cover · -4.4% EV
NU −7.5-110 DraftKings50% to cover · -4.4% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Aidan ChilesSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3515th
- Comp %
- 70.5
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
Alessio MilivojevicSophomore · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0389th
- Comp %
- 65.6
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 16
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Michigan Stateoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNorthwestern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 108th | −0.01 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.03 | 66th |
| 69th | 43.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 43.8% | 97th |
| 93rd | +0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | 0.00 | 61st |
| 109th | −0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.07 | 86th |
| 135th | 8.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.4% | 65th |
| Northwesternoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMichigan State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | +0.30 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 88th |
| 12th | 50.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 41.8% | 80th |
| 20th | +0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.16 | 103rd |
| 4th | +0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.02 | 51st |
| 1st | 19.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 10.3% | 42nd |
Team stats
| Michigan StateMSU | NorthwesternNU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +4.18th | +3.024th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.449th | −1.291st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 56%48th | 59%27th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.7691st | 5.279th |
| Time of possession | 19:18138th | 29:3653rd |
| Plays per game | 6577th | 61114th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −3 | +8 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 8 – 5 | 4 – 12 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 7.4%107th | 7.2%112th |
Season so far
Northwestern4–1 · 60th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
W
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5L
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5W
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35Michigan State2–4 · 19th-hardest schedule
W
vs Toledo30–20push −10
vs Toledo30–20push −10W
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5L
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29L
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6L
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5L
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is