Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Nebraska
5–1 · Ours #16Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–29Our projected score
Oregon
3–2 · Ours #18Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ORE 61%
ORE 61%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.ORE −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.3 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.52.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 53.9 · opened 51.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.NEB +7.5-108 DraftKings51% to cover · -1.3% EV
NEB +7.5-108 DraftKings51% to cover · -1.3% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Anthony ColandreaSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2826th
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 14
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
Dylan RaiolaJunior · 2 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.11
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Oregonoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNebraska | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72nd | +0.09 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.15 | 11th |
| 94th | 41.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 32.6% | 7th |
| 42nd | +0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.24 | 7th |
| 108th | −0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.05 | 38th |
| 33rd | 14.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 10.6% | 48th |
| Nebraskaoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseOregon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | +0.23 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.08 | 27th |
| 42nd | 46.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 38.8% | 48th |
| 36th | +0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.07 | 38th |
| 12th | +0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.09 | 22nd |
| 44th | 14.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 10.4% | 43rd |
Team stats
| OregonORE | NebraskaNEB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +3.613th | −0.8101st |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +0.765th | +1.560th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 51%77th | 60%22nd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.9016th | 4.8917th |
| Time of possession | 26:00115th | 31:4818th |
| Plays per game | 6939th | 7216th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +3 | +3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 9 – 12 | 7 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 8.7%79th | 12.1%19th |
Season so far
Nebraska5–1 · 73rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Ohio49–21covered −24
vs Ohio49–21covered −24W
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5Wvs North Dakota34–7missed −27.5
W
at Michigan State31–13covered −6
at Michigan State31–13covered −6W
vs Maryland48–23covered −15
vs Maryland48–23covered −15L
vs Indiana17–20covered +9
vs Indiana17–20covered +9Oregon3–2 · 9th-hardest schedule
W
vs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25L
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
W
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameL
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is