Michigan
3–2 · Ours #34Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
15–35Our projected score
AP #4Ohio State
5–1 · Ours #3Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.OSU 88%
OSU 88%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.OSU −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.8 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −11.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.45.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 49.6 · first seen 45.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.OSU −11.5-120 FanDuel55% to cover · +1.3% EV
OSU −11.5-120 FanDuel55% to cover · +1.3% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Bryce UnderwoodSophomore · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1361st
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
Julian SayinSophomore · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.501st
- Comp %
- 71.6
- TD
- 17
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Ohio Stateoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseMichigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | +0.22 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.15 | 13th |
| 5th | 52.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 33.5% | 12th |
| 6th | +0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.18 | 17th |
| 95th | +0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.12 | 18th |
| 42nd | 14.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 8.9% | 17th |
| Michiganoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseOhio State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76th | +0.08 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.09 | 23rd |
| 78th | 42.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 34.9% | 19th |
| 58th | +0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.15 | 23rd |
| 87th | +0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | 0.00 | 62nd |
| 111th | 10.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 8.3% | 10th |
Team stats
| Ohio StateOSU | MichiganMICH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.594th | −3.5124th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +6.117th | −2.6104th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 58%32nd | 42%114th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.0612th | 3.9082nd |
| Time of possession | 21:54135th | 28:0082nd |
| Plays per game | 6938th | 58130th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 8 – 8 | 7 – 6 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 6.9%117th | 12.1%18th |
Season so far
Michigan3–2 · 71st-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5W
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5W
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5L
at Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6Ohio State5–1 · 80th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ball State56–3covered −50
vs Ball State56–3covered −50L
at Texas23–24covered +2
at Texas23–24covered +2W
vs Kent State59–3covered −52
vs Kent State59–3covered −52W
vs Illinois42–19missed −26
vs Illinois42–19missed −26Wat Iowa31–14covered −14.5
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5W
vs Maryland45–16missed −31
vs Maryland45–16missed −31Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is