Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Memphis
5–1 · Ours #41 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–38FinalWe had MEM 26 – BOIS 30
Boise State
5–1 · Ours #35 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BOIS 59%BOIS won
BOIS 59%BOIS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BOIS −8.5.BOIS −9oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.9 · BOIS covered by 9
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.2.55final 58 · over by 3
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MEM +8.5Llost 0.5 to the close
MEM +8.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Marcus Stokes17/26 · 384 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4178th pct
- Comp %
- 65.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Maddux Madsen17/28 · 221 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1756th pct
- Comp %
- 60.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Memphisoffense | Played like BOIS +16.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBoise State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 34.6%▼17.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.6%▲7.0 | 74th |
| 48th | +0.04▼0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.02 | 52nd |
| 81st | +0.41▲0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.46 | 19th |
| 7th | −0.39▼0.64 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.39▲0.57 | 93rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
| Boise Stateoffense | defenseMemphis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76th | 49.3%▲4.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.3%▼11.0 | 25th |
| 83rd | +0.32▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.33 | 18th |
| 60th | +0.17▼0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.49 | 40th |
| 92nd | +0.41▲0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.13 | 8th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MemphisMEM | Boise StateBOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 215th | Own 204th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.2 pts80th | +0.8 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5241st | 7592nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.722nd | +10.778th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts22nd | +0.3 pts72nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BOIS +6.5: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.2, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −6.522nd | +6.578th |
Season so far
Memphis5–1 · 124th-hardest schedule
W
at UNLV27–21covered +5
at UNLV27–21covered +5W
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11Lat Boise State20–38missed +9
at Boise State20–38missed +9Wvs UT Martin45–21missed −33.5
W
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5W
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5Boise State5–1 · 52nd-hardest schedule
L
at Oregon27–34covered +25
at Oregon27–34covered +25Wvs Memphis38–20covered −9
vs Memphis38–20covered −9Wvs South Dakota38–24missed −27.5
W
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5W
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5W
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is