Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Memphis
5–1 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
+4.7
Rank
47
Résumé
34
Projected wins
8.8▲ 3.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
5%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on MEM games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.3 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.85–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins31%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game44%
Win conference26%
Make the CFP5%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- A CFP bid: 7% with a win vs Tulane, 1% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Georgia State over James Madison — swings a CFP bid between 4% and 8%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.268th
Success rate50.7%13th
Pass EPA+0.389th
Rush EPA+0.1827th
Explosive rate17.5%7th
Quality-drive rate52.4%68th
Points per quality drive4.731st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0895th
Success allowed39.8%59th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1128th
Rush EPA allowed+0.26136th
Explosive allowed14.6%120th
Havoc rate9.2%69th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.9102nd
Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +2.0
Field position margin−2.0 yd98th
Hidden points / game+1.9banked
Luck, wins+0.24.8 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected+4.0%31st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.747th
Schedule played−6.3124th
Schedule remaining−3.880th
Full schedule−4.9100th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 47th · +4.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Memphisoff +0.26 8thdef +0.08 allowed · 95th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Memphisoff +0.26 8thdef +0.08 allowed · 95th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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