Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Memphis

5–1 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
+4.7
Rank
47
Résumé
34
Projected wins
8.8▲ 3.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
5%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at UNLVUNLVMEM +6.5MEM +5.5W 27–2155MEM · W
Sat, Sep 59/5Arkansas StateARSTMEM −12.8MEM −8.5W 42–2462MEM · W
Sat, Sep 129/12at Boise StateBOISMEM +3.9MEM +8.5L 20–3834MEM · L
Sat, Sep 199/19UT MartinUT MartinMEM −37.0MEM −33.5W 45–2169
Sat, Oct 310/3at CharlotteCLTMEM −18.4MEM −20.0W 59–876CLT · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10UABUABMEM −15.5MEM −14.5W 38–1378MEM · W
Fri, Oct 1610/16at TulaneTULNMEM −6.3MEM −7.0TULN +7.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31ArmyARMYMEM −5.4—wk 9
Sat, Nov 2111/21at NavyNAVYMEM −2.9—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27TempleTEMMEM −9.3—wk 13

Model on MEM games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.3 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.85–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins31%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game44%
Win conference26%
Make the CFP5%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.268th
Success rate50.7%13th
Pass EPA+0.389th
Rush EPA+0.1827th
Explosive rate17.5%7th
Quality-drive rate52.4%68th
Points per quality drive4.731st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0895th
Success allowed39.8%59th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1128th
Rush EPA allowed+0.26136th
Explosive allowed14.6%120th
Havoc rate9.2%69th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.9102nd
Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +2.0
Field position margin−2.0 yd98th
Hidden points / game+1.9banked
Luck, wins+0.24.8 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected+4.0%31st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.747th
Schedule played−6.3124th
Schedule remaining−3.880th
Full schedule−4.9100th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 47th · +4.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMEMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Memphisoff +0.26 8thdef +0.08 allowed · 95th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.