Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Boise State
5–1 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
+9.2
Rank
31
Résumé
19
Projected wins
8.7▲ 3.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
24%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on BOIS games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–3, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +4.9 · closer than the market 1 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.75–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)98%
9+ wins24%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 3.7 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game83%
Win conference50%
Make the CFP24%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- Scoreboard watch: root for Georgia State over James Madison — swings a CFP bid between 20% and 33%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2222nd
Success rate48.2%28th
Pass EPA+0.2433rd
Rush EPA+0.2016th
Explosive rate12.3%80th
Quality-drive rate59.7%24th
Points per quality drive4.354th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0580th
Success allowed37.6%38th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1090th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0348th
Explosive allowed15.4%129th
Havoc rate11.6%27th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.664th
Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +3.5
Field position margin−5.0 yd128th
Hidden points / game+3.9banked
Luck, wins+0.24.8 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected+5.1%25th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.231st
Schedule played+2.052nd
Schedule remaining−4.484th
Full schedule−1.275th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 31st · +9.2AP 23rdWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Boise Stateoff +0.22 22nddef +0.05 allowed · 80th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Boise Stateoff +0.22 22nddef +0.05 allowed · 80th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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