Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Boise State

5–1 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
+9.2
Rank
31
Résumé
19
Projected wins
8.7▲ 3.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
24%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at OregonOREBOIS +26.5BOIS +24.5L 27–3431ORE · L
Sat, Sep 129/12MemphisMEMBOIS −3.9BOIS −8.5W 38–2067MEM · L
Sat, Sep 199/19South DakotaSouth DakotaBOIS −40.8BOIS −27.5W 38–2475
Sat, Sep 269/26at Western MichiganWMUBOIS +2.5BOIS −8.0W 32–782WMU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Utah StateUSUBOIS −19.0BOIS −20.5W 37–1862USU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Fresno StateFRESBOIS −3.1BOIS −6.0W 38–3151FRES · L
Sat, Nov 711/7at Colorado StateCSUBOIS −19.2—wk 10

Model on BOIS games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–3, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +4.9 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.75–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)98%
9+ wins24%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 3.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game83%
Win conference50%
Make the CFP24%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2222nd
Success rate48.2%28th
Pass EPA+0.2433rd
Rush EPA+0.2016th
Explosive rate12.3%80th
Quality-drive rate59.7%24th
Points per quality drive4.354th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0580th
Success allowed37.6%38th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1090th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0348th
Explosive allowed15.4%129th
Havoc rate11.6%27th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.664th
Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +3.5
Field position margin−5.0 yd128th
Hidden points / game+3.9banked
Luck, wins+0.24.8 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected+5.1%25th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.231st
Schedule played+2.052nd
Schedule remaining−4.484th
Full schedule−1.275th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 31st · +9.2AP 23rdWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBOISgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Boise Stateoff +0.22 22nddef +0.05 allowed · 80th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.