Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Sacramento State
1–5 · Ours #89 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–49FinalWe had SAC 23 – FRES 27
Fresno State
4–2 · Ours #117 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FRES 60%FRES won
FRES 60%FRES wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FRES −18.5.FRES −17.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4 · FRES covered by 28.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.5.43.5final 52 · over by 8.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SAC +18.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
SAC +18.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Jackson Sharman16/32 · 153 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2617th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Jayden Mandal23/27 · 318 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7393rd pct
- Comp %
- 85.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sacramento Stateoffense | Played like FRES +34.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFresno State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44th | 40.0%▼0.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▲3.1 | 56th |
| 10th | −0.29▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.37 | 90th |
| 13th | −0.37▼0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.37▲0.46 | 87th |
| 25th | −0.15▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.20 | 75th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.8 | 59th |
| Fresno Stateoffense | defenseSacramento State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79th | 51.2%▲12.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.2%▼11.2 | 21st |
| 92nd | +0.44▲0.42 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.40 | 8th |
| 97th | +0.89▲0.78 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.89▼0.86 | 3rd |
| 33rd | −0.08▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.13 | 67th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sacramento StateSAC | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2419th | Own 3167th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts62nd | +1.7 pts90th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 308th | 4122nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −23.77th | +23.793rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts23rd | −0.7 pts14th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FRES +7.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.5, kicking +0.8, 4th downs −0.3, penalty first downs +1.5. | −7.120th | +7.180th |
Season so far
Sacramento State1–5 · 113th-hardest schedule
L
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9Wvs Mississippi Valley State52–0covered −38.5
Lat Fresno State3–49missed +17.5
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5L
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25L
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5L
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9Fresno State4–2 · 115th-hardest schedule
L
at USC0–39missed +21.5
at USC0–39missed +21.5Wvs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5W
at San José State26–10covered −4.5
at San José State26–10covered −4.5W
vs Rice38–24covered −13
vs Rice38–24covered −13W
at Washington State26–6covered +2
at Washington State26–6covered +2L
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is