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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs OHIO · Sat, Oct 17 · 10:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Sacramento State

1–5 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−21.1
Rank
136
Résumé
135
Projected wins
2.7▼ 3.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at Eastern MichiganEMUSAC −1.9SAC +9.5L 17–2843SAC · L
Sat, Sep 59/5Mississippi Valley StateMississippi Valley StateSAC −27.3SAC −38.5W 52–070
Sat, Sep 129/12at Fresno StateFRESSAC +4.0SAC +18.5L 3–499SAC · L
Sat, Sep 199/19North Dakota StateNDSUSAC +9.1SAC +27.5L 10–3143SAC · W
Sat, Sep 269/26MassachusettsMASSSAC −8.0SAC +5.5L 6–3527SAC · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Bowling GreenBGSUSAC +3.1SAC +7.0L 10–3830SAC · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17OhioOHIOSAC +15.7SAC +15.0OHIO −15.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Ball StateBALLSAC +5.5—wk 8
Fri, Oct 3010/30Kent StateKENTSAC +0.8—wk 9
Wed, Nov 411/4ToledoTOLSAC +17.9—wk 10
Wed, Nov 1111/11at Central MichiganCMUSAC +7.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Hawai'iHAWSAC +13.5—wk 13

Model on SAC games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 1–4 · home 1–1, away 0–3 · avg gap to the market +11.8 · closer than the market 0 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.71–5 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.18137th
Success rate39.9%105th
Pass EPA−0.25136th
Rush EPA−0.08122nd
Explosive rate8.0%137th
Quality-drive rate40.0%120th
Points per quality drive2.9127th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0468th
Success allowed38.6%46th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0783rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0166th
Explosive allowed15.2%124th
Havoc rate6.1%124th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.643rd
Turnover margin−7129th · exp. −6.0
Field position margin+3.1 yd44th
Hidden points / game−6.2gave up
Luck, wins−0.21.2 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−5.0%109th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−21.1136th
Schedule played−4.7114th
Schedule remaining−11.2133rd
Full schedule−8.3132nd
Pregame expected wins2.6of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 1Wk 3Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 136th · −21.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUSACgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Sacramento Stateoff −0.18 137thdef +0.04 allowed · 68th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.