Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: High totals go under
UTSA
5–1 · Ours #68 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–26FinalWe had UTSA 30 – TXST 29
Texas State
2–3 · Ours #85 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTSA 54%UTSA won
UTSA 54%UTSA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TXST +1.5.TXST −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1.6 · UTSA covered by 7.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.0.65.5final 57 · under by 8.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TXST +1Lbeat the close by 3.5
TXST +1Lbeat the close by 3.5Quarterbacksthis game
Owen McCown28/42 · 214 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0645th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Brad Jackson17/29 · 218 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1048th pct
- Comp %
- 58.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTSAoffense | Played like TXST +2.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 45.9%▲3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.9%▲1.5 | 36th |
| 64th | +0.16▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.05 | 36th |
| 59th | +0.17▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▲0.04 | 41st |
| 65th | +0.14▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.22 | 35th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Texas Stateoffense | defenseUTSA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 48.1%▼1.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.1%▼8.2 | 30th |
| 65th | +0.17▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.05 | 35th |
| 53rd | +0.10▼0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.06 | 47th |
| 73rd | +0.21▲0.42 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.10 | 27th |
| 16th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.8 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTSAUTSA | Texas StateTXST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3166th | Own 2737th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts62nd | −1.0 pts23rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7490th | 7794th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.636th | +4.664th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +2.0 pts100th | −0.6 pts18th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UTSA +10.6: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.6, kicking +1.1, 4th downs +3.4, penalty first downs −0.8. | +10.690th | −10.610th |
Season so far
UTSA5–1 · 82nd-hardest schedule
Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45–16covered −28.5
Wat Texas State31–26covered +2.5
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5L
at Texas6–30covered +30
at Texas6–30covered +30W
vs Colorado State59–45push −14
vs Colorado State59–45push −14W
at Rice16–14missed −12.5
at Rice16–14missed −12.5W
vs South Florida31–24covered −6
vs South Florida31–24covered −6Texas State2–3 · 42nd-hardest schedule
Lat Texas7–59missed +29.5
at Texas7–59missed +29.5Lvs UTSA26–31missed −2.5
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5W
vs North Texas49–35covered −3
vs North Texas49–35covered −3Wvs Incarnate Word63–10covered −30.5
L
at San Diego State29–31missed −10
at San Diego State29–31missed −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is