Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
James Madison
6–0 · Ours #54 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–13FinalWe had JMU 28 – SDSU 22
San Diego State
2–4 · Ours #66 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JMU 64%JMU won
JMU 64%JMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SDSU −1.5.SDSU −1.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +5.9 · JMU covered by 14.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.5.46.5final 39 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JMU +0.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
JMU +0.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Camden Coleman19/27 · 246 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1049th pct
- Comp %
- 70.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Jayden Denegal18/33 · 209 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3113th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| James Madisonoffense | Played like JMU +6.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSan Diego State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.6%▲3.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.6%▲4.0 | 34th |
| 37th | −0.04▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.20 | 63rd |
| 54th | +0.10▼0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.14 | 47th |
| 26th | −0.14▼0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.21 | 74th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| San Diego Stateoffense | defenseJames Madison | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | 31.2%▲0.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.2%▲6.8 | 82nd |
| 28th | −0.11▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.15 | 73rd |
| 17th | −0.31▼0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.43 | 83rd |
| 52nd | +0.06▲0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.11 | 48th |
| 16th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.8 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| James MadisonJMU | San Diego StateSDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3378th | Own 229th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts86th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7389th | 7794th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +9.975th | −9.925th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −1.0 pts8th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. JMU +9.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.8, kicking +1.1, 4th downs +1.7, penalty first downs +0.8. | +9.988th | −9.912th |
Season so far
James Madison6–0 · 120th-hardest schedule
W
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5Wvs Wagner87–3covered −46
Wat San Diego State26–13covered +1.5
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5W
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5W
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5W
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7San Diego State2–4 · 31st-hardest schedule
Wvs Portland State53–20missed −38.5
L
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5Lvs James Madison13–26missed −1.5
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5L
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5W
vs Texas State31–29covered +10
vs Texas State31–29covered +10L
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is