Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

San Diego State
2–4 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
−8.7
Rank
106
Résumé
103
Projected wins
4.3▼ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on SDSU games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 3–2 · home 2–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +5.2 · closer than the market 3 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
4.32–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)2%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 2.3 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game6%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.11132nd
Success rate32.9%137th
Pass EPA−0.15127th
Rush EPA−0.09126th
Explosive rate9.0%132nd
Quality-drive rate38.5%126th
Points per quality drive3.4105th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0791st
Success allowed48.2%131st
Pass EPA allowed+0.14100th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0061st
Explosive allowed11.2%58th
Havoc rate6.1%125th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.840th
Turnover margin+158th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin−2.5 yd103rd
Hidden points / game−4.3gave up
Luck, wins−0.32.3 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 1–5
Rush rate over expected+5.2%22nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−8.7106th
Schedule played+4.331st
Schedule remaining−2.576th
Full schedule+0.966th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 106th · −8.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
San Diego Stateoff −0.11 132nddef +0.07 allowed · 91st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
San Diego Stateoff −0.11 132nddef +0.07 allowed · 91st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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