Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

San Diego State

2–4 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
−8.7
Rank
106
Résumé
103
Projected wins
4.3▼ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Portland StatePortland StateSDSU −31.5SDSU −38.5W 53–2071
Sat, Sep 129/12at UCLAUCLASDSU +10.3SDSU +11.0L 10–2826SDSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19James MadisonJMUSDSU +5.9SDSU −0.5L 13–2646JMU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at ToledoTOLSDSU +6.3SDSU −2.5L 16–4134TOL · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Texas StateTXSTSDSU +4.0SDSU +4.5W 31–2942SDSU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Oregon StateORSTSDSU +9.1SDSU +13.5L 14–6612SDSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Fresno StateFRESSDSU +6.2SDSU +7.5SDSU +7.5Pass
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Boise StateBOISSDSU +17.2—wk 12

Model on SDSU games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 3–2 · home 2–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +5.2 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.32–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)2%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game6%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.11132nd
Success rate32.9%137th
Pass EPA−0.15127th
Rush EPA−0.09126th
Explosive rate9.0%132nd
Quality-drive rate38.5%126th
Points per quality drive3.4105th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0791st
Success allowed48.2%131st
Pass EPA allowed+0.14100th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0061st
Explosive allowed11.2%58th
Havoc rate6.1%125th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.840th
Turnover margin+158th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin−2.5 yd103rd
Hidden points / game−4.3gave up
Luck, wins−0.32.3 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 1–5
Rush rate over expected+5.2%22nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−8.7106th
Schedule played+4.331st
Schedule remaining−2.576th
Full schedule+0.966th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 106th · −8.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUSDSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
San Diego Stateoff −0.11 132nddef +0.07 allowed · 91st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.