Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

James Madison
6–0 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
+6.8
Rank
37
Résumé
17
Projected wins
10.8▲ 2.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
51%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on JMU games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 1–0 · home 2–0, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +7.6 · closer than the market 3 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.86–0 banked, 6 to play · preseason 8.6
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins89%
11+ wins27%
The 6 games left add 4.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game88%
Win conference58%
Make the CFP51%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 61% with a win vs Georgia State, 21% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1160th
Success rate45.4%50th
Pass EPA+0.1645th
Rush EPA+0.0772nd
Explosive rate13.3%58th
Quality-drive rate56.7%42nd
Points per quality drive4.539th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0241st
Success allowed35.4%22nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0162nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0537th
Explosive allowed9.7%28th
Havoc rate9.4%64th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+7.41st
Turnover margin+94th · exp. +4.5
Field position margin+7.7 yd11th
Hidden points / game+4.4banked
Luck, wins+1.05.0 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected−0.4%57th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.837th
Schedule played−5.9120th
Schedule remaining−5.292nd
Full schedule−5.6110th
Pregame expected wins4.3of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 37th · +6.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
James Madisonoff +0.11 60thdef −0.02 allowed · 41st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
James Madisonoff +0.11 60thdef −0.02 allowed · 41st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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