Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

James Madison

6–0 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
+6.8
Rank
37
Résumé
17
Projected wins
10.8▲ 2.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
51%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5LibertyLIBJMU −9.2JMU −6.5W 20–1352JMU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12WagnerWagnerJMU −41.0JMU −46.0W 87–389
Sat, Sep 199/19at San Diego StateSDSUJMU −5.9JMU +0.5W 26–1355JMU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Old DominionODUJMU −16.4JMU −3.0W 46–2051JMU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3MarshallMRSHJMU −22.6JMU −18.5W 45–1770JMU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Georgia SouthernGASOJMU −17.6JMU −8.5W 27–2450JMU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Georgia StateGASTJMU −10.7JMU −12.0GAST +12.5Pass
Thu, Oct 2210/22at App StateAPPJMU −14.2—wk 8
Thu, Oct 2910/29TroyTROYJMU −17.8—wk 9
Thu, Nov 511/5at Southern MissUSMJMU −16.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at UConnCONNJMU −4.8—wk 11

Model on JMU games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 1–0 · home 2–0, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +7.6 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.86–0 banked, 6 to play · preseason 8.6
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins89%
11+ wins27%

The 6 games left add 4.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game88%
Win conference58%
Make the CFP51%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1160th
Success rate45.4%50th
Pass EPA+0.1645th
Rush EPA+0.0772nd
Explosive rate13.3%58th
Quality-drive rate56.7%42nd
Points per quality drive4.539th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0241st
Success allowed35.4%22nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0162nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0537th
Explosive allowed9.7%28th
Havoc rate9.4%64th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+7.41st
Turnover margin+94th · exp. +4.5
Field position margin+7.7 yd11th
Hidden points / game+4.4banked
Luck, wins+1.05.0 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected−0.4%57th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.837th
Schedule played−5.9120th
Schedule remaining−5.292nd
Full schedule−5.6110th
Pregame expected wins4.3of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 37th · +6.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUJMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
James Madisonoff +0.11 60thdef −0.02 allowed · 41st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.