Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Fresno State
4–2 · Ours #63 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–10FinalWe had FRES 29 – SJSU 21
San José State
3–3 · Ours #109 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FRES 68%FRES won
FRES 68%FRES wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FRES −7.FRES −4.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.4 · FRES covered by 11.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.7.47.5final 36 · under by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SJSU +7.5Lbeat the close by 3.0
SJSU +7.5Lbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
Jayden Mandal15/29 · 186 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1048th pct
- Comp %
- 51.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Luke Weaver21/38 · 244 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2914th pct
- Comp %
- 55.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Fresno Stateoffense | Played like FRES +6.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSan José State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 32.4%▼9.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.4%▲12.3 | 79th |
| 35th | −0.05▼0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.08 | 65th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.09 | 53rd |
| 29th | −0.12▼0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.20 | 71st |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.5 | 21st |
| San José Stateoffense | defenseFresno State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 31.4%▼7.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.4%▲13.4 | 81st |
| 14th | −0.23▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.30 | 86th |
| 19th | −0.29▼0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.37 | 81st |
| 27th | −0.13▲0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.18 | 73rd |
| 1st | 4▼3.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲2.8 | 99th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Fresno StateFRES | San José StateSJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3994th | Own 215th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.5 pts97th | +1.0 pts74th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6880th | 7083rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −0.449th | +0.451st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.3 pts33rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FRES +17.3: turnovers +10.4, field position +6.3, kicking +1.1, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs −0.8. | +17.399th | −17.32nd |
Season so far
Fresno State4–2 · 115th-hardest schedule
L
at USC0–39missed +21.5
at USC0–39missed +21.5W
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5Wat San José State26–10covered −4.5
at San José State26–10covered −4.5W
vs Rice38–24covered −13
vs Rice38–24covered −13W
at Washington State26–6covered +2
at Washington State26–6covered +2L
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5San José State3–3 · 109th-hardest schedule
Lat USC26–42covered +38.5
at USC26–42covered +38.5W
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5Wvs Cal Poly30–20missed −21.5
Lvs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5W
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3L
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is