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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

San José State

3–3 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−10.5
Rank
115
Résumé
102
Projected wins
5.5▼ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at USCUSCSJSU +27.3SJSU +38.5L 26–4214SJSU · W
Fri, Sep 49/4at Eastern MichiganEMUSJSU +0.8SJSU +3.5W 27–2158SJSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Cal PolyCal PolySJSU −36.1SJSU −21.5W 30–2058
Sat, Sep 199/19Fresno StateFRESSJSU +7.4SJSU +7.5L 10–2640SJSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Hawai'iHAWSJSU +1.4SJSU +3.0W 20–1639SJSU · W
Fri, Oct 910/9WyomingWYOSJSU −5.8SJSU −7.0L 13–1650WYO · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at UTEPUTEPSJSU −5.1SJSU −7.5UTEP +7.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at NevadaNEVSJSU +8.3—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31New MexicoUNMSJSU +20.0—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7Northern IllinoisNIUSJSU −8.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Air ForceAFSJSU +11.2—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21UNLVUNLVSJSU +6.3—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27North Dakota StateNDSUSJSU +12.9—wk 13

Model on SJSU games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 0–1, away 4–0 · avg gap to the market +3.7 · closer than the market 4 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.53–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.9
Bowl (6+)22%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game4%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.06127th
Success rate39.5%112th
Pass EPA+0.0099th
Rush EPA−0.14132nd
Explosive rate11.5%102nd
Quality-drive rate45.1%104th
Points per quality drive3.3113th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0159th
Success allowed42.3%86th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0447th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0788th
Explosive allowed10.4%44th
Havoc rate10.2%45th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.468th
Turnover margin−3102nd · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−3.9 yd122nd
Hidden points / game−2.7gave up
Luck, wins+0.42.6 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected−5.2%111th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−10.5115th
Schedule played−3.9109th
Schedule remaining−5.090th
Full schedule−4.595th
Pregame expected wins1.8of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 115th · −10.5Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUSJSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
San José Stateoff −0.06 127thdef +0.01 allowed · 59th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.