Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3in trend: High totals go under
North Texas
4–2 · Ours #32 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–49FinalWe had UNT 35 – TXST 31
Texas State
2–3 · Ours #90 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNT 61%TXST won
UNT 61%TXST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TXST −3.TXST −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +4.7 · TXST covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 66.3.62.5final 84 · over by 21.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNT +3Lmatched the close
UNT +3Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Tayven Jackson42/56 · 508 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4983rd pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Brad Jackson16/22 · 268 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8998th pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Texasoffense | Played like TXST +5.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82nd | 52.4%▲8.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.4%▼7.2 | 18th |
| 81st | +0.30▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.25 | 19th |
| 85th | +0.49▲0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.39 | 15th |
| 35th | −0.07▼0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.06 | 65th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
| Texas Stateoffense | defenseNorth Texas | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91st | 59.2%▲13.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 59.2%▼20.5 | 9th |
| 86th | +0.35▲0.36 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.29 | 15th |
| 97th | +0.89▲0.76 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.89▼0.64 | 3rd |
| 60th | +0.11▲0.29 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.18 | 40th |
| 79th | 0▲2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North TexasUNT | Texas StateTXST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2316th | Own 4096th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −2.0 pts10th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8498th | 7185th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.031st | +7.069th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts7th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TXST +8.0: turnovers +2.6, field position +5.9, kicking −1.4, 4th downs +1.7, penalty first downs −0.8. | −8.017th | +8.083rd |
Season so far
North Texas4–2 · 91st-hardest schedule
L
at Indiana16–52covered +40
at Indiana16–52covered +40W
vs UNLV44–6covered +3
vs UNLV44–6covered +3Lat Texas State35–49missed +3
at Texas State35–49missed +3Wvs Houston Christian63–14covered −38.5
W
at Tulsa45–44missed −2.5
at Tulsa45–44missed −2.5W
vs Charlotte50–10covered −28
vs Charlotte50–10covered −28Texas State2–3 · 42nd-hardest schedule
L
at Texas7–59missed +29.5
at Texas7–59missed +29.5L
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5Wvs North Texas49–35covered −3
vs North Texas49–35covered −3Wvs Incarnate Word63–10covered −30.5
L
at San Diego State29–31missed −10
at San Diego State29–31missed −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is