LockSZNTeam
Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at NAVY · Sat, Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

North Texas

4–2 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
+3.6
Rank
53
Résumé
48
Projected wins
8.2▲ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at IndianaIUUNT +25.4UNT +40.5L 16–5241UNT · W
Sat, Sep 129/12UNLVUNLVUNT −1.8UNT +5.0W 44–671UNT · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Texas StateTXSTUNT −4.7UNT +3.0L 35–4948UNT · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Houston ChristianHouston ChristianUNT −40.4UNT −38.5W 63–1482
Thu, Oct 110/1at TulsaTLSAUNT −6.8UNT +1.0W 45–4456UNT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10CharlotteCLTUNT −31.0UNT −27.5W 50–1077UNT · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at NavyNAVYUNT −5.7—wk 8
Thu, Oct 2910/29Florida AtlanticFAUUNT −9.2—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7RiceRICEUNT −15.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at UTSAUTSAUNT PK—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TulaneTULNUNT −8.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28UABUABUNT −17.9—wk 13

Model on UNT games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 3–1 · home 2–0, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +6.9 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.24–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.7
Bowl (6+)92%
9+ wins14%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 4.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game53%
Win conference29%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.331st
Success rate48.6%23rd
Pass EPA+0.511st
Rush EPA+0.1058th
Explosive rate17.2%8th
Quality-drive rate63.8%11th
Points per quality drive4.726th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.11102nd
Success allowed44.2%102nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.22115th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0165th
Explosive allowed13.6%105th
Havoc rate8.1%92nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.8129th
Turnover margin+158th · exp. +3.5
Field position margin−4.5 yd125th
Hidden points / game−2.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.33.7 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−4.1%98th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.653rd
Schedule played−2.192nd
Schedule remaining−5.896th
Full schedule−4.290th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 53rd · +3.6Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUNTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
North Texasoff +0.33 1stdef +0.11 allowed · 102nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.