Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Troy
3–2 · Ours #96 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–21FinalWe had TROY 23 – USU 23
Utah State
2–4 · Ours #107 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USU 50%USU won
USU 50%USU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USU −2.5.USU −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · USU covered by 8
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 45.5.47.5final 31 · under by 16.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Goose Crowder26/50 · 232 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3213th pct
- Comp %
- 52.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Grady Brosterhous19/29 · 241 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1453rd pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Troyoffense | Played like USU +8.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUtah State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | 42.0%▼0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.0%▼2.5 | 48th |
| 24th | −0.13▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.12 | 76th |
| 17th | −0.32▼0.45 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.37 | 84th |
| 69th | +0.17▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.25 | 32nd |
| 5th | 3▼2.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.5 | 95th |
| Utah Stateoffense | defenseTroy | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | 40.7%▲12.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.7%▲1.6 | 54th |
| 50th | +0.06▲0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.07 | 50th |
| 57th | +0.14▲0.47 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.13 | 44th |
| 41st | −0.02▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.02▼0.09 | 59th |
| 16th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.7 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TroyTROY | Utah StateUSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2418th | Own 3270th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −3.5 pts3rd | −2.7 pts4th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8198th | 5956th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.432nd | +6.468th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts82nd | +0.4 pts74th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USU +5.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.8, kicking +0.6, 4th downs −0.2. | −5.824th | +5.876th |
Season so far
Troy3–2 · 103rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5Wvs Alabama State34–17missed −23.5
L
at Missouri17–27covered +27
at Missouri17–27covered +27Lat Utah State10–21missed +3
at Utah State10–21missed +3W
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10Utah State2–4 · 36th-hardest schedule
Lvs Idaho State17–29missed −15.5
L
at Washington14–16covered +28
at Washington14–16covered +28L
at Utah0–33missed +26.5
at Utah0–33missed +26.5Wvs Troy21–10covered −3
vs Troy21–10covered −3L
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5W
vs Washington State17–16missed −4
vs Washington State17–16missed −4Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is