Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Utah State
2–4 · Ours #102 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–37FinalWe had USU 14 – BOIS 34
AP #22Boise State
5–1 · Ours #22 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BOIS 87%BOIS won
BOIS 87%BOIS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BOIS −20.5.BOIS −19.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19 · USU covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.0.51.5final 55 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USU +20.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
USU +20.5Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Grady Brosterhous12/18 · 129 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1327th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Relieved in Q2 by 4923285
Maddux Madsen17/21 · 244 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2765th pct
- Comp %
- 81.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utah Stateoffense | Played like BOIS +11.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBoise State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 31.6%▲0.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.6%▲10.7 | 81st |
| 38th | −0.03▲0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.12 | 63rd |
| 15th | −0.34▼0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.48 | 85th |
| 86th | +0.33▲0.46 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.32 | 14th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
| Boise Stateoffense | defenseUtah State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.2%▼0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.2%▼6.5 | 38th |
| 61st | +0.13▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.21 | 39th |
| 71st | +0.27▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.37 | 29th |
| 53rd | +0.06▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.11 | 48th |
| 41st | 1▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utah StateUSU | Boise StateBOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2743rd | Own 2420th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts54th | +1.0 pts73rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5750th | 6264th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.931st | +6.969th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.3 pts31st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BOIS +1.6: field position −1.1, kicking +0.5, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −1.641st | +1.659th |
Season so far
Utah State2–4 · 36th-hardest schedule
Lvs Idaho State17–29missed −15.5
L
at Washington14–16covered +28
at Washington14–16covered +28L
at Utah0–33missed +26.5
at Utah0–33missed +26.5W
vs Troy21–10covered −3
vs Troy21–10covered −3Lat Boise State18–37covered +19.5
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5W
vs Washington State17–16missed −4
vs Washington State17–16missed −4Boise State5–1 · 52nd-hardest schedule
L
at Oregon27–34covered +25
at Oregon27–34covered +25W
vs Memphis38–20covered −9
vs Memphis38–20covered −9Wvs South Dakota38–24missed −27.5
W
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5Wvs Utah State37–18missed −19.5
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5W
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is