Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5in trend: High totals go under
Oregon State
4–2 · Ours #69 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
56–26FinalWe had ORST 31 – CSU 24
Colorado State
2–3 · Ours #108 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ORST 67%ORST won
ORST 67%ORST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ORST −3.5.ORST −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.9 · ORST covered by 23
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.6.62.5final 82 · over by 19.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ORST −6.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
ORST −6.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Braden Atkinson32/35 · 449 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5787th pct
- Comp %
- 91.4
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Ksaan Farrar20/31 · 194 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1030th pct
- Comp %
- 64.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oregon Stateoffense | Played like ORST +28.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseColorado State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99th | 74.1%▲25.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 74.1%▼20.6 | 1st |
| 92nd | +0.44▲0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.14 | 8th |
| 85th | +0.49▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.05 | 15th |
| 90th | +0.39▲0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.16 | 10th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.0 | 59th |
| Colorado Stateoffense | defenseOregon State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83rd | 52.6%▲10.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.6%▼15.1 | 17th |
| 26th | −0.12▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.11 | 74th |
| 42nd | −0.02▼0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.03 | 58th |
| 18th | −0.21▼0.34 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.16 | 82nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oregon StateORST | Colorado StateCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3688th | Own 4298th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5853rd | 3818th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +17.988th | −17.913th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts82nd | −0.4 pts26th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CSU 0.0: field position +2.1, 4th downs −1.3, penalty first downs −0.8. | 0.050th | 0.051st |
Season so far
Oregon State4–2 · 105th-hardest schedule
L
at Houston20–33covered +21
at Houston20–33covered +21L
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5Wvs Montana52–17covered −17.5
W
at UTEP33–7covered −11
at UTEP33–7covered −11Wat Colorado State56–26covered −7
at Colorado State56–26covered −7W
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5Colorado State2–3 · 53rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3Wvs Southern Utah58–24covered −20
L
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-game
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-gameL
at UTSA45–59push +14
at UTSA45–59push +14Lvs Oregon State26–56missed +7
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is